Starting to make sense to me. BMW is not going to miss a model year which would have been the case if the car was to appear in late 2009. Production is shut down in S-Burg as Z production switches to Germany. I understand that the new Z is super hush-hush, just like the the new X3. I was told many months ago that the new Z would be first shown this Fall, but I didn't believe it as there were no leaked pictures coming out - yes, a few here and there, but not like in years past where there was a rising number of sneaked/spy photos right before official release. By this time of the year (with a Nov release), we should be seeing more spy photos. BMW can't have left over Z4s on the lot in Spring 2009 - it will have to be the new one. Spring in the US will be busy for BMW NA with the big roll out of the new 7 series. But, BMW is getting the hang of having two or three big roll outs a year.
Price is one concern, another is financing. Big 3 are re-thinking the lease agreements they have had in the past. Banks, like Wells Fargo, are saying "no". Take a look at the leases (residual and money factor) on the 1 series. They just don't want you to lease it, if you insist, a fully loaded 135i Cabrio will be $900/month. So, there may be some sticker shock with the Z4 replacement, but there may be a further kick with lease or financing rates that add another layer of hurt. Not everybody leases, of course, but the auto makers have become addicted to it even if it is a double edged sword. Remember the last few years as BMW NA heralded new sales records each year? You don't move that much high-end German product without a financial nudge to a lot of buyers.
What market is BMW looking at with the new Z4? If they are looking to compete against the MB SL roadsters, then they will be starting in the $75,000 - $80,000 range. It is my hope that BMW still wants to sell a sports car, not a roadster. I am told it is longer, wider, heavier, more expensive and with a tin top. The devil will be in the details.
My Z4 lease is up in Feb 2009. If the new Z4 is stretching to run against an MB SL, I'll starting looking at a 335i Cabrio.
Or, I'll pay up and buy my current Z4. I can live with that.