Would you change your vote ?

When you see EU vs non-EU immigration figures they usually use "country of birth" as a classifier. Non-EU has historically been a lot higher, but does the non-EU data include EU citizens who were born elsewhere in the world?
 
exdos said:
Using figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), for mid-2007 the UK population size was 61.3 million and by mid-2017 the population size was just over 66million. That's an increase of more than 4.7million people (7.66%) in just 10years. That's almost the total combined population of Northern Ireland and Wales at 5.045million. Most of this population increase has been absorbed by England. You claim that such a population increase, largely through immigration, is "hugely beneficial" and suggest that this can be estimated to be worth some £20bn per annum in taxes, but the fact is, a population of 4.7 million requires the infrastructure equivalent of that that already exists in the whole of Northern Ireland and Wales! The fact is, we have not seen required infrastructure projects of such scale in England over the past 10 years. As such we're packed into England like sardines and where all our public services, housing, education, health service, transportation, water and waste management etc., are stretched to their absolute limits. The sum of £20bn per annum would go absolutely nowhere towards building the necessary infrastructure to properly accommodate the population increase of 4.7m in the last 10 years

You erroneously assume that population increase is largely due to immigration. The ageing population is also a very significant factor and we need immigration to pay for that as people live longer, get sicker and require more care. You also assume that infrastructure spend should be directly correlated to population increase which would only be true if they all used the infrastructure at the same rate and that there no fixed elements in it - eg older people use more health services and most immigrants are younger. In broad terms then the net benefit from immigration will accumulate and can be used to fund infrastructure investments. You could also argue the reason some public services are so stretched is largely due to the austerity measures that this government has imposed. In the case of health we also need to spend more as treatments advance and costs rise faster than inflation.

The UK is not an open house. Immigrants fill jobs. The UK has the right to remove them if they have not found work or able to sustain themselves - European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC

If we did not have immigration then public services would be even more stretched than they are now. Please don't forget that immigrants (or queue jumpers as the PM called them) are a significant element of the workforce in those sectors. 12.7% of the NHS workforce are from outside the UK (5.6% from the EU) and 17% of social care staff (7% from the EU). The fact is we will need immigrants whether or not we leave the EU. Right now almost 1 in 11 posts in the NHS are vacant partly as a result of the number of immigrants leaving and not being replaced rises - we will all suffer as a result of that. We simply don't have enough UK born people to fill those jobs is the problem.

You can't just pick one constituency from >600 and extrapolate from that even if you knew how individuals voted. Yes some young people voted to leave but the vast majority of analyses of how people voted shows that an overwhelming majority (c70%) of young people (and by that I mean 18 -24) voted to leave. Similarly 65% of over 65's voted to leave. No one knows the precise number because individual records are not kept of how people voted

For the record I have never asserted that leave voters are right wing racists or uneducated which I noted you slipped in to your comments. There is evidence that suggests 70% of those with degrees voted to remain but its less clear when you look at education levels below that but above the GCSE level. Calling someone uneducated based purely on their educational qualifications is in any case too simplistic in my opinion. We all continue to learn during our lives :wink:

Darkangelv2 said:
What should always have been clear is the super rich and big business' are the group who benefitted from the wider labour market and should therefore foot the bill for the increased infrastructure spend required to go with it (schools, hospital, transport etc.)

Very good point.
 
Ewazix said:
A virtual split decision last time. 1.5 million previous voters have died. 2 million new voters now eligible who will live the consequences. A political stalemate over an agreement that does not meet anybodies wants or needs and zero prospect of anything better being available.
All the parties are split. A three question binding referendum seems fair and democratic.
1. Out no deal
2. Out on current terms offered
3. Stay and try and reform from within the EU

If no party is willing to implement the result then a temporary emergency government of national unity to do so.

A 3 way vote like that isn't going to work, unless you are a remoaner. If people vote the same as the first time option 3 would win by default with 51% of the votes split between option 1 and 2.
 
srhutch said:
A 3 way vote like that isn't going to work, unless you are a remoaner. If people vote the same as the first time option 3 would win by default with 51% of the votes split between option 1 and 2.

I think your're right. I suppose splitting the vote this way is down to whether or not you think its worth leaving at any costs. I expect people will be split on that as well! :lol:
 
Vornwend said:
You erroneously assume that population increase is largely due to immigration. Etc,

It's quite clear that you and I disagree on many aspects relating to this subject and that we are unlikely ever to agree no matter how many facts, figures and opinions we present to each other. This is typical of the UK electorate as a whole. However, what must be acknowledged is that in the Brexit Referendum, Leave voters have the majority, and as a result of our democratic system, the UK Parliament (81.3%) overwhelmingly voted to trigger Article 50 so that at 11pm on 29th March 2019, the UK permanently leaves the EU.

Due to the 2 year timescale over which the UK's exit can be negotiated, it seems that many remainers are seeking to use this period to undermine our democracy in order to attempt to reverse our leaving of the EU and it seems that the EU Junta is only too happy to assist you.

From closely following the political events surrounding Brexit, it seems clear to me that, throughout the last 21 months, the antics in Parliament are a complete orchestrated charade between both Labour and Conservative MPs in order to run the clock down so that when we finally reach the 11th Hour, the EU has to face a No Deal Brexit, or offers us an acceptable deal for future trading relations. Unless the UK shows the EU at the 11th Hour that we are fully prepared to go for a No Deal, then the EU will never treat the UK as an equal in negotiations.

At the end of the day the EU is making Brexit as difficult as possible as a punishment for the UK pour encourager les autres in the same way that escapees from prison camps are treated to deter further escapes. They have experience of this.
 
You are probably right about whether we will ever agree. Each side feels very strongly.

From the remain side I'd argue that people did not have the full facts when they voted in 2016 and now that its clearer what is on offer should be given the right to vote again. I don't see how asking people for their opinion on such a critical matter is undemocratic. I could also say that if leave are so certain they have the majority then what they are they frightened of? The referendum is different than an election because its likely to bind us for decades to come therefore we should be certain its really what we want when in possession of the facts is my view.

I accept that we go round in circles here each quoting facts and convenient sound bites - I've probably watched too much of the debate too! Leave is still the strong favourite in my opinion particularly as both the main parties leaders are now in favour of it in one form or another and don't support a second vote. If we do leave then we won't really know what we are getting until the trade deal is done. Lets see how it plays out
 
In the tradition of DOOM & GLOOM :D the army has been put on standy, is this just in case of a no Brexit deal to help with supply issues at the ports or the outright rioting and decending chaos that wil ensue when people realise they will no longer have a job? :)

My money would be on the latter, any excuse for a good punch up and the odd inner city riot.

Tim
 
I find it interesting that the EU now seem to think there will be a second referendum I think that has been the plan all along, refuse to give any ground in the hope we will change our minds and keep paying in to keep the EU going
 
jabber said:
I find it interesting that the EU now seem to think there will be a second referendum I think that has been the plan all along, refuse to give any ground in the hope we will change our minds and keep paying in to keep the EU going

Surely they wouldn’t pull a stunt like that just to keep the millions flowing in, would they?
E7ED2777-76D7-436C-882E-51C7DEBB09CD.jpeg
Rob
 
ronk said:
In or out, their pensions won’t stop.

Ours might...

Was thinking, seems leaving the EU is a bit like parting with your beloved //M car.

When you want to leave the club:
,.. you’ll have to compromise on the financial deal, you never get what you want
... there’ll be lots of paperwork to sort
... maybe the the grass will be greener with the new Caymen, maybe the new dream will work out costing u more
... all the money paid in for past servicing will be lost
... once gone, it’ll cost u significantly more should u ever decide to come back
... once gone, whist there will always be points of pain, some will remaniss about the things they loved

Least the world won’t end because of Brexit when we leave...
 
As far as I can see there seems to be little choice at the moment, apart from May letting the people decide if they want her deal to proceed or not, as parliament is pretty ineffectual at present. If we vote yes in another referendum to the prime ministers deal then that’s the way Parliament must go. If the populous state that’s not what we want, then the ballot must also contain two other options, that is leave with no deal or remain. That is the very definition of democracy

Yes the country voted to leave, however the country voted to leave on the understanding that we would get a deal, this was what we were sold on by the leave campaign. I certainly do not believe for one minute that all 52% of leavers wanted to go with no deal and WTO rules. It is absolutely suicidal for the country to go to WTO rules and contravenes the good Friday agreement (because there cannot be a border between North and South and there has to be if we want to export to the EU).
 
sars said:
As far as I can see there seems to be little choice at the moment, apart from May letting the people decide if they want her deal to proceed or not, as parliament is pretty ineffectual at present. If we vote yes in another referendum to the prime ministers deal then that’s the way Parliament must go. If the populous state that’s not what we want, then the ballot must also contain two other options, that is leave with no deal or remain. That is the very definition of democracy

Yes the country voted to leave, however the country voted to leave on the understanding that we would get a deal, this was what we were sold on by the leave campaign. I certainly do not believe for one minute that all 52% of leavers wanted to go with no deal and WTO rules. It is absolutely suicidal for the country to go to WTO rules and contravenes the good Friday agreement (because there cannot be a border between North and South and there has to be if we want to export to the EU).

This vote approach has been suggested SARS, though appears the leave camp don’t want remain anywhere on the ballot paper as they’re more worried about loosing than democracy :poke:

We’re already the laughing stock of Europe, whatever we do now can’t get much worse
 
Jembo said:
Was thinking, seems leaving the EU is a bit like parting with your beloved //M car.
How embarrassing.......... you only have 2 // in front of your M

Sorry for the interruption, carry on , as you were :lol:
 
Not just remainers who benefit from the EU of course .....
farage.jpg

Then there is the mewling pencil Rees-Mogg whose fund management company has set up a new fund in Ireland designed to benefit from Brexit warning in its prospectus "“During, and possibly after, this period there is likely to be considerable uncertainty as to the position of the UK and the arrangements which will apply to its relationships with the EU.”

Rees-Mogg draws a salary of £14,000 a month for 30 hours a month and will be laughing all the way to the bank if we leave

Not forgetting Boris Johnson everything of which he does, says or leaks is designed solely & exclusively to advance the cause of Boris Johnson. In his personal, political & professional lives nobody else has ever mattered one jot - certainly not the folks who voted leave

As commented above UK MEPs will get their pensions whether or not we leave. The payments that farmers get will also continue as the UK government has said it will pay them instead which is one of the reasons the £350m a week we were supposed to save by leaving and be able to spend on the NHS was an outright lie

So many good stories and smears spoilt by the facts :wink:
 
So did he say stupid woman or stupid people, as it seems what Corbyn said is far far far more important than the future of our country.
 
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