The jab ..

[exdos]

Im sure I read somewhere that since the beginning of this year it has mutated over 1400 times.

Here's a link to Nature :https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 in which it is stated; "Despite the virus’s sluggish mutation rate, researchers have catalogued more than 12,000 mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes"

The thing is, now that the genomes of the Coronavirus can be rapidly identified (i.e. the RNA sequences) these can all be compared by computer software, so that the sections of the RNA which do not seem to mutate as rapidly as others can be identified and then possibly used to produce vaccines in a targeted approach.

We are extremely fortunate that we now have genetic engineering to assist in the relatively rapid production of new vaccines which can be reconfigured should virus mutations require different vaccines.

 

[exdos]

The figures that I provided were from the same website. Are they wrong?

The figure you have given in your earlier post as found here:

"5 year average for influenza and pneumonia deaths per year in the uk is 313,084 (ons)"

is massively wrong :!:

If you follow the download I suggested from the ONS website, take a look yourself at the data. I know that you will only be convinced when you see that data for yourself.

 

[mr wilks]

5 year average for influenza and pneumonia deaths per year in the uk is 313,084 (ons).

The figures from the ONS are found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumonia
If you click on the green "xlsx" download button you'll find that your figures are massively WRONG!

The actual total numbers of deaths in England & Wales from Influenza and Pneumonia combined for the past 10 years as given in Table 5 are as follows:
2010 25,839
2011 25,868
2012 26,365
2013 26,625
2014 25,909
2015 29,451
2016 27,927
2017 27,858
2018 29,103
2019 25,406

In comparison the total number of deaths from C-19 from January to August 2020 is recorded as 48,168.

You will never understand this issue whilst you continue to use incorrect figures.

Can't wait to see the number for 2020 RE flue/pneumonia deaths :wink: & more importantly will the total yearly death figure far exceed the average for the last 10yrs which i believe in the UK is around 575k/625k ?

 

[exdos]

Can't wait to see the number for 2020 RE flue/pneumonia deaths :wink:

Do you think it will be greater than for each of the past 10 years? Or are you suggesting it will be much less because people have been dying of C-19?

& more importantly will the total yearly death figure far exceed the average for the last 10yrs which i believe in the UK is around 575k/625k ?

Is your figure of "575k/625k" for deaths from all causes? It was 530k for England and Wales in 2019

 

[mr wilks]

Can't wait to see the number for 2020 RE flue/pneumonia deaths :wink:

Do you think it will be greater than for each of the past 10 years? Or are you suggesting it will be much less because people have been dying of C-19?

& more importantly will the total yearly death figure far exceed the average for the last 10yrs which i believe in the UK is around 575k/625k ?

Is your figure of "575k/625k" for deaths from all causes? It was 530k for England and Wales in 2019

I expect the number for the year flu/pneumonia will be significantly down & also think the yearly total death number won't be crazily different to the past 10 yr average , i certainly don't think it will be the normal number + CV number ( 65k ish ? )
It was back in April i read the numbers , thought the average for the past 10 yrs was somewhere around the 575k but couldn't remember exactly , wasn't one year over 600k ? the year when the flu wiped out a similar number to what CV19 has yet there was little said or done at the time .

 

[Z4C_er]

I expect the number for the year flu/pneumonia will be significantly down & also think the yearly total death number won't be crazily different to the past 10 yr average , i certainly don't think it will be the normal number + CV number ( 65k ish ? )
It was back in April i read the numbers , thought the average for the past 10 yrs was somewhere around the 575k but couldn't remember exactly , wasn't one year over 600k ? the year when the flu wiped out a similar number to what CV19 has yet there was little said or done at the time .

You're right.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/942969/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w50_FINAL.PDF

 

[Z4C_er]

Just looking at this site. Have a fiddle with the graphs yourself. Lots of scale adjustments there, so be wary.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

 

[exdos]

Interesting, lots of data to play around with.
Naturally it fits my narrative

Which narrative are you referring to? You previously stated:

5 year average for influenza and pneumonia deaths per year in the uk is 313,084 (ons).

Do you still maintain the above annual combined death rate of 313,084 from influenza and pneumonia, or do you now accept the figures that I produced from the ONS, where the annual combined death rate is around 27,000 deaths per annum?

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate

The proposed age-related vaccination strategy is a very good start but what about the high incidence of C-19 infection amongst the BAME group which is not age-related?
See: https://assets.publishing.service.g...lder_engagement_synthesis_beyond_the_data.pdf

 

[ronk]

I just want my jabs ASAP !

 

[maxman]

The country can’t go on stumbling from one lockdown to another lockdown a few months later.Here in Wales we have Capt Drakeford who hasn’t the balls to grip the problem at source.In the South Wales valley’s they must be ignoring all the advice as the virus is rampant,yet the whole of Wales is being punished by put into a three week lockdown.
I will be having the vaccine as soon as I get the call.Anybody who refuses the vaccine should have a mark against their name and refused treatment if they catch the virus,that will never happen though as we are to soft.

 

[JamieZ4C]

Do you still maintain the above annual combined death rate of 313,084 from influenza and pneumonia, or do you now accept the figures that I produced from the ONS, where the annual combined death rate is around 27,000 deaths per annum?

Clearly, mgrlane has got his numbers very wrong indeed. Doesn't take a statistician to work that one out. However, I don't think your numbers are correct either. Personally I found the sheet that you both took your numbers from quite confusing and this one is much more clear...https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...causesofdeath/datasets/leadingcausesofdeathuk

Here are the grim numbers for years 2014-2018 (I assume they will release numbers for 2019 in 2021 and 2020 in 2022).

 

[exdos]

Clearly, mgrlane has got his numbers very wrong indeed. Doesn't take a statistician to work that one out. However, I don't think your numbers are correct either. Personally I found the sheet that you both took your numbers from quite confusing and this one is much more clear...https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...causesofdeath/datasets/leadingcausesofdeathuk

I've just downloaded the stats from the link you posted and using Table 1 for "Leading Cause (ICD-10 code)" for "Influenza and Pneumonia (J09-J18)" it gives the following data which is remarkably close to the information I previously posted from the ONS. This is for all ages and both sexes combined.

2010 28,131
2011 26,056
2012 25,936
2013 26,502
2014 23,546
2015 27,544
2016 25,310
2017 25,448
2018 27,142

I suggest that you take another look at your link.

 

[exdos]

As explained, the numbers that quoted are "died with symptoms" those numbers are recorded on the ONS and are accurate. I have used these figures for a reason (forgive me it was a month ago when me and my mates were discussing it so I couldn't remember).

If people died in a car accident and have covid they are included in the covid deaths (their recorded death is covid not the car accident).

Those numbers I used are a like for like.

I have used the died with symptoms to give a fair like for like of both covid and influenza and pneumonia (because this is how we are recording any covid deaths). You could drown in the sea but if we found your body and you looked like you might have had covid then it would go in the covid figures, we might test you for good measure but doctors can sign off covid deaths without a test.

If 1 person died of a heart attack but had pneumonia this would be classed as a heart attack death.

If that same person died a heart attack but then was tested and covid-19 was present (or if the doctor said they showed some symptoms of it in some cases) then its classed as a Covid death.

If I was taken to hospital with pneumonia and died and there was traces of covid in my system (that I caught in hospital- now that's a rabbit hole to go down finding the figures for how many people catch it in hospital) then again it's classed as a Covid death.

The figures we looked at are the ones where if influenza and pneumonia are present we can class the death as influenza and pneumonia. Because that's what we do if Covid was present or looks like it might be.

I hope that explains the reasoning for the use of those numbers?

Let's specifically talk about deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia, because that's what's in question here. You previously stated that annual combined death rate from Influenza and Pneumonia was 313,084, which is massively WRONG.

Are you saying that if someone dies and has a heart attack, or RTA or drowns, but is suffering from Influenza or Pneumonia at the time, then the ONS will record that death as from Influenza or Pneumonia, but NOT from heart attack, RTA or drowning?

In your explanation above you seem to be interchanging C-19 and Influenza/Pneumonia death recordings by the ONS.

 

[JamieZ4C]

I've just downloaded the stats from the link you posted and using Table 1 for "Leading Cause (ICD-10 code)" for "Influenza and Pneumonia (J09-J18)" it gives the following data which is remarkably close to the information I previously posted from the ONS. This is for all ages and both sexes combined.

2010 28,131
2011 26,056
2012 25,936
2013 26,502
2014 23,546
2015 27,544
2016 25,310
2017 25,448
2018 27,142

I suggest that you take another look at your link.

No, you have another look :wink: Table 1 is for England only. Also, you didn't choose all ages.

Go to table 5 for all of UK. Select all genders, select all ages

 

[exdos]

You are correct but my figures the other day were for England and Wales only..

Roughly double the figures I've posted above for the correct figures for England and Wales.

 

[JamieZ4C]

In my earlier posting of a few days ago I specifically said that the figures were for England and Wales. The Welsh figures from your link only add about 2,000 cases per year to the figures I've given in my table this afternoon.

Fair enough, my figures are for the UK, but you're still not selecting all ages (it's not that clear, but if you click the drop down and select all you'll see what I mean)

 

[exdos]

Fair enough, my figures are for the UK, but you're still not selecting all ages (it's not that clear, but if you click the drop down and select all you'll see what I mean)

I posted in haste and I am now repenting in isolation at leisure...

 

[exdos]

Let's specifically talk about deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia, because that's what's in question here. You previously stated that annual combined death rate from Influenza and Pneumonia was 313,084, which is massively WRONG.

Sorry mate. I made a mistake if you read back you can see I said that. To clarify the figures are Died with and not died of. Silly me.
Does that make sense?

Now that I know that you are no longer comparing C-19 deaths to the wrong 300k figure you'd previously been using for Influenza and Pneumonia, we can agree to use the ONS data which JamieZ4C has given above as found:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...causesofdeath/datasets/leadingcausesofdeathuk

With regard to the possibility of reinfection by C-19 I've found this link: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ which records 29 instances with just 1 death, which I believe puts this issue into perspective.

 

[exdos]

My whole point is that lockdowns, restrictions, face masks, Tier systems, social distancing etc. etc. are a very poor alternative to mass vaccination of the UK which is a far better and speedier alternative and I really cannot see why so many people would not wish to participate. In my opinion the minimal downsides and risks of vaccination far outweigh the risks of C-19 infection to the individual and the massive cost to the UK Economy as a whole. The sooner we can restore some sort of normality the better and vaccination offers us all that future.

 

[john-e89]

The country can’t go on stumbling from one lockdown to another lockdown a few months later.Here in Wales we have Capt Drakeford who hasn’t the balls to grip the problem at source.In the South Wales valley’s they must be ignoring all the advice as the virus is rampant,yet the whole of Wales is being punished by put into a three week lockdown.
I will be having the vaccine as soon as I get the call.Anybody who refuses the vaccine should have a mark against their name and refused treatment if they catch the virus,that will never happen though as we are to soft.

That’s not how a free society works Maxman, you can’t put a mark against someone and refuse treatment and then treat someone who rides a motorbike, goes rock climbing or cave diving etc, etc, they’re all very risky.