So are you going to go out once the lock down starts to be lifted?
buzyg said:There is a lot a of testing going on Tim. My wife is now registered for a test, should she think she has had Covid19. So i'm guessing they have come down the tree as far as humble care home workers. Still a long way to go to offer testing to the general population though.TitanTim said:
A glance at the figures the other day, suggested to my statistical mind that about 10% of the population of the Uk had caught the virus by last Saturday. Population centres like Birmingham, London and Liverpool will build up heard immunity before they get a vaccine out there. It's the folk hiding away in rural retreats, like many of us, that are going to need a vaccine before it is safe out there. So what I am suggesting is, it will be safe to walk freely and socialise around London, before it will be safe to walk around Saltash.
In my book, its the care home workers that need to be tested soon as and need bumping up the tree, its looking scary now how the virus is quickly running through care homes. I may be wrong but unsure care home deaths are being added to the sdaily death stats at the moment.
Maybe the worst only is being reported at the moment but when all this kicked off the Gov't said only a small percentage would be seriously affected who are within a certain age bracket with underlying health issues but there appears to be younger healthy people perishing with daily figures hovering around the 8/900 mark which to me seems alot of deaths. Either the Gov't were ill informed what to expect or didn't want to panic the nation.
Tim.
The early death rate being banded about as around 1% overall. So if 60%need to catch it to gain heard immunity then that is around 550000 deaths if left to run it's natural course in the UK.TitanTim said:buzyg said:There is a lot a of testing going on Tim. My wife is now registered for a test, should she think she has had Covid19. So i'm guessing they have come down the tree as far as humble care home workers. Still a long way to go to offer testing to the general population though.TitanTim said:
A glance at the figures the other day, suggested to my statistical mind that about 10% of the population of the Uk had caught the virus by last Saturday. Population centres like Birmingham, London and Liverpool will build up heard immunity before they get a vaccine out there. It's the folk hiding away in rural retreats, like many of us, that are going to need a vaccine before it is safe out there. So what I am suggesting is, it will be safe to walk freely and socialise around London, before it will be safe to walk around Saltash.
In my book, its the care home workers that need to be tested soon as and need bumping up the tree, its looking scary now how the virus is quickly running through care homes. I may be wrong but unsure care home deaths are being added to the sdaily death stats at the moment.
Maybe the worst only is being reported at the moment but when all this kicked off the Gov't said only a small percentage would be seriously affected who are within a certain age bracket with underlying health issues but there appears to be younger healthy people perishing with daily figures hovering around the 8/900 mark which to me seems alot of deaths. Either the Gov't were ill informed what to expect or didn't want to panic the nation.
Tim.
The figures have been out there for weeks now.
A
Anonymous
Guest
buzyg said:The early death rate being banded about as around 1% overall. So if 60%need to catch it to gain heard immunity then that is around 55000 deaths if left to run it's natural course in the UK.TitanTim said:buzyg said:There is a lot a of testing going on Tim. My wife is now registered for a test, should she think she has had Covid19. So i'm guessing they have come down the tree as far as humble care home workers. Still a long way to go to offer testing to the general population though.
A glance at the figures the other day, suggested to my statistical mind that about 10% of the population of the Uk had caught the virus by last Saturday. Population centres like Birmingham, London and Liverpool will build up heard immunity before they get a vaccine out there. It's the folk hiding away in rural retreats, like many of us, that are going to need a vaccine before it is safe out there. So what I am suggesting is, it will be safe to walk freely and socialise around London, before it will be safe to walk around Saltash.
In my book, its the care home workers that need to be tested soon as and need bumping up the tree, its looking scary now how the virus is quickly running through care homes. I may be wrong but unsure care home deaths are being added to the sdaily death stats at the moment.
Maybe the worst only is being reported at the moment but when all this kicked off the Gov't said only a small percentage would be seriously affected who are within a certain age bracket with underlying health issues but there appears to be younger healthy people perishing with daily figures hovering around the 8/900 mark which to me seems alot of deaths. Either the Gov't were ill informed what to expect or didn't want to panic the nation.
Tim.
Actually 80% is the more preferred minimum herd number..with measles etc they try to get to 90%+
So at 60% 80% 90% that with 67m population at 1% death rate that implies...402,000 536,000 and 603,000 deaths as a consequence...
So on that basis that’s not a go-er ..
Mind you with the unfolding care home nightmare that looks like to could happen anyway :thumbsdown:
Herd immunity is the way to get any level of safety. This can be achived by catching COVID and recovering (assuming that gives immunity) or a vaccine. The catcing it option means a proportion will die. If to achive herd immunity say 60 to 80% of a population have to be immune then 60-80% have (without a vaccine) to catch the virus. Of this 60-80% say 3% die. This seems to be about the reported death rate. The population of the UK is approx 60 million. A few simple calculations reveal that 3% of 80% of 60 million is 1.4 million. Hoping for a vaccine myself.
That's a very valid point. As an older peeps I tend to think of the young as safe risk sacrificial lamb boosting the chances of herd immunity and therefor lessening the chances of the older generation catching the virus, but of course there are still great risks for the younger ones, I wouldn't want my children to catch the virus no matter what the odds were. CV is like a very tricky puzzle, I just cant think of a way out of this awful predicament at the moment for oldies and the younger generation but we simply cant all stay locked down forever.. economics just cant allow this to happen....ben g said:BeeEmm said:Firstly, get people back to work who cannot work from home and test negative on accurate equipment. That's the first Dove. Get industries up and running. The sacrificial age group is between 28 and 55 for me.
Cheers, don't worry about me catching anything and then bringing that back home for my newborn baby to get :thumbsdown:
BeeEmm wrote: ↑14 Apr 2020 12:41
Firstly, get people back to work who cannot work from home and test negative on accurate equipment. That's the first Dove. Get industries up and running. The sacrificial age group is between 28 and 55 for me.
ben g wrote Cheers, don't worry about me catching anything and then bringing that back home for my newborn baby to get
Andrew Sheldon wrote That's a very valid point. As an older peeps I tend to think of the young as safe risk sacrificial lamb boosting the chances of herd immunity and therefor lessening the chances of the older generation catching the virus, but of course there are still great risks for the younger ones, I wouldn't want my children to catch the virus no matter what the odds were. CV is like a very tricky puzzle, I just cant think of a way out of this awful predicament at the moment for oldies and the younger generation but we simply cant all stay locked down forever.. economics just cant allow this to happen....
BeeEmm wrote: I think that it will be extremely difficult getting people back to work. It makes it even more admirable that there is a system in place now whereby key workers, like supermarket workers, can get to work and spend most of the day face to face with the public and still manage to smile and be polite. The big test of the British resolve, is yet to come.
Firstly, get people back to work who cannot work from home and test negative on accurate equipment. That's the first Dove. Get industries up and running. The sacrificial age group is between 28 and 55 for me.
ben g wrote Cheers, don't worry about me catching anything and then bringing that back home for my newborn baby to get
Andrew Sheldon wrote That's a very valid point. As an older peeps I tend to think of the young as safe risk sacrificial lamb boosting the chances of herd immunity and therefor lessening the chances of the older generation catching the virus, but of course there are still great risks for the younger ones, I wouldn't want my children to catch the virus no matter what the odds were. CV is like a very tricky puzzle, I just cant think of a way out of this awful predicament at the moment for oldies and the younger generation but we simply cant all stay locked down forever.. economics just cant allow this to happen....
BeeEmm wrote: I think that it will be extremely difficult getting people back to work. It makes it even more admirable that there is a system in place now whereby key workers, like supermarket workers, can get to work and spend most of the day face to face with the public and still manage to smile and be polite. The big test of the British resolve, is yet to come.
Never do arithmetic in your head.Pbondar said:buzyg said:The early death rate being banded about as around 1% overall. So if 60%need to catch it to gain heard immunity then that is around 55000 deaths if left to run it's natural course in the UK.TitanTim said:
Actually 80% is the more preferred minimum herd number..with measles etc they try to get to 90%+
So at 60% 80% 90% that with 67m population at 1% death rate that implies...402,000 536,000 and 603,000 deaths as a consequence...
So on that basis that’s not a go-er ..
Mind you with the unfolding care home nightmare that looks like to could happen anyway :thumbsdown:
I meant 550,000. Your right, we don't want to go there. Hence the current lock down, while we try to come up with an alternative. Sure hope we do. 
I just came across something on the BBC website about the Iranians having developed a non-invasive detector of the C-19 virus:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52289273
More about it here:
http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2020-04/15/content_75935813.htm
Sounds a bit like a tin-foil hat to me...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52289273
More about it here:
http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2020-04/15/content_75935813.htm
Sounds a bit like a tin-foil hat to me...
exdos said:
Plenty of BS going on there me thinks! Bit like the 5G mobile masts causing CV. What are those people on these days :idunno: .
As for the benchmark seemingly being at 60 then that's me knackered after tomorrow (16th). A few plans to celebrate this one all gone up in smoke now
. Still, I'm in good health as far as I know & I'm thankful for that. When the vaccine comes I'll definitely be in the queue for that.We've moved one of our booked holidays from the end of this April until the same time next year. Keeping fingers crossed we can still get over to France mid September as my niece gets married then & a week later we're supposed to be off to Lanzarote for a couple of weeks. Difficult & very different times for us all at the moment
.Andrew Sheldon said:That's a very valid point. As an older peeps I tend to think of the young as safe risk sacrificial lamb boosting the chances of herd immunity and therefor lessening the chances of the older generation catching the virus, but of course there are still great risks for the younger ones, I wouldn't want my children to catch the virus no matter what the odds were. CV is like a very tricky puzzle, I just cant think of a way out of this awful predicament at the moment for oldies and the younger generation but we simply cant all stay locked down forever.. economics just cant allow this to happen....ben g said:BeeEmm said:Firstly, get people back to work who cannot work from home and test negative on accurate equipment. That's the first Dove. Get industries up and running. The sacrificial age group is between 28 and 55 for me.
Cheers, don't worry about me catching anything and then bringing that back home for my newborn baby to get :thumbsdown:
I had a letter a couple of weeks ago from my company saying they will be looking at getting production lines running from 4th May, but it's looking more likely to be 1st June now. Based on the outskirts of London, well inside the M25, so clearly they're worried, but also realise the need to keep the economy going.
I'll have to accept the risks and hope my company have adequate protection in place.
Will be nice to go back to work though! I've had 7 weeks off so far :lol:
This will change life as we know it plain and simple.
There is also questions being raised around immunity with a scattering of unconfirmed reports of people who had the virus catching it again so I would caution against putting all your eggs in that particular basket. Realistically we just dont know at this stage.
Personally I have concerns around how this is going to be handled long term in a prolonged lockdown/restriction situation. The current restrictions are not going to sit well with people over a long period of time and that will start to cause unrest and civil disobedience (this is already happening in the US with protests and states publicly talking about opening back up). The economic damage is also significant and is something we will be paying for for the rest of our lives... again
The announcement of a further 3 weeks today was inevitable, the steps taken over the last 3 weeks are only just starting to be felt, I expect that the "vulnerable" groups will be locked down for the next few months at least and the rest of us will have to get things back up and running while maintaining a balance of social distancing potentially with scattered lockdowns in between as the infections (R) begins to climb again. That will probably continue until a vaccine is found which could take years.
Last but not least, in answer to your question Peter, I will go out and about once the lockdown ends however it will be with a very different mindset, I will avoid large crowds (if these even happen) wont be staying away from home or going on holiday, wont be eating out etc. I carry surgical gloves in the car and will wear them whenever I am out and unfortunately I will be staying away from my elderly/vulnerable family and friends in order to protect them.
Buckle up boys, we are in for the long haul
There is also questions being raised around immunity with a scattering of unconfirmed reports of people who had the virus catching it again so I would caution against putting all your eggs in that particular basket. Realistically we just dont know at this stage.
Personally I have concerns around how this is going to be handled long term in a prolonged lockdown/restriction situation. The current restrictions are not going to sit well with people over a long period of time and that will start to cause unrest and civil disobedience (this is already happening in the US with protests and states publicly talking about opening back up). The economic damage is also significant and is something we will be paying for for the rest of our lives... again
The announcement of a further 3 weeks today was inevitable, the steps taken over the last 3 weeks are only just starting to be felt, I expect that the "vulnerable" groups will be locked down for the next few months at least and the rest of us will have to get things back up and running while maintaining a balance of social distancing potentially with scattered lockdowns in between as the infections (R) begins to climb again. That will probably continue until a vaccine is found which could take years.
Last but not least, in answer to your question Peter, I will go out and about once the lockdown ends however it will be with a very different mindset, I will avoid large crowds (if these even happen) wont be staying away from home or going on holiday, wont be eating out etc. I carry surgical gloves in the car and will wear them whenever I am out and unfortunately I will be staying away from my elderly/vulnerable family and friends in order to protect them.
Buckle up boys, we are in for the long haul
A
Anonymous
Guest
Flyingfifer said:This will change life as we know it plain and simple.
There is also questions being raised around immunity with a scattering of unconfirmed reports of people who had the virus catching it again so I would caution against putting all your eggs in that particular basket. Realistically we just dont know at this stage.
Personally I have concerns around how this is going to be handled long term in a prolonged lockdown/restriction situation. The current restrictions are not going to sit well with people over a long period of time and that will start to cause unrest and civil disobedience (this is already happening in the US with protests and states publicly talking about opening back up). The economic damage is also significant and is something we will be paying for for the rest of our lives... again
The announcement of a further 3 weeks today was inevitable, the steps taken over the last 3 weeks are only just starting to be felt, I expect that the "vulnerable" groups will be locked down for the next few months at least and the rest of us will have to get things back up and running while maintaining a balance of social distancing potentially with scattered lockdowns in between as the infections (R) begins to climb again. That will probably continue until a vaccine is found which could take years.
Last but not least, in answer to your question Peter, I will go out and about once the lockdown ends however it will be with a very different mindset, I will avoid large crowds (if these even happen) wont be staying away from home or going on holiday, wont be eating out etc. I carry surgical gloves in the car and will wear them whenever I am out and unfortunately I will be staying away from my elderly/vulnerable family and friends in order to protect them.
Buckle up boys, we are in for the long haul
Flyingfifer..thanks for that view..I'll make sure I;m not walking directky in front of you when you are wearing those rubber gloves :thumbsdown:
Bad memories of US border guard checks on a gay business associate of mine at the time..Although this issue came from left field very quickly I don't think its going to leave us very quickly.
The monte carlo wheel of probabilistic theory suggests that about 1 in 100 of us, if we catch the disease today would die.. :thumbsdown:
If you're a fat f&*ker, over 60 and with anyone of half a dozen complaints, especially if you have non caucasion genes looks like the odds are not good..
Given that when various aviation disasters were underway everybody paniced when the statisitical oddes were around 1 in 10,000,000 I#m suprised more people are not sh%6ung themselves when the odds are 1 in 100?
Anyway Flyingfifer no more French Kissing for us two going forward..
Pbondar said:Anyway Flyingfifer no more French Kissing for us two going forward..
Well there goes my light at the end of the tunnel!
Fully agree, the "iTs JuSt A FlU Br0" crowd really are quite detached from the cold reality of whats currently in front of us.
One thing that is a source of frustration for me at the moment is the osmium dense questions being asked at the daily press briefings
"when will this be over", "why wont you speculate... everyone else is", "but when will this be over"
STFU, they dont know, no one knows and if they say June and they are wrong you lot will be all over them for telling lies
North West Surrey
Flyingfifer said:
I couldn't agree more - if they don't know there is no point saying anything! :roll:
Although I turned 60 last year I will definitely be going out when it becomes acceptable, just keeping well away from other people!
I will definitely be going out for a few decent drives as soon as allowed.Mr Tidy said:
But on my own and not mingling.
No desire to mix with people at present....
TitanTim said:
Totally agree unfortunately, unless a vaccine is fast tracked, some type of social distancing will be here for some time, but the way I see it, is that most of us will get it at some point and the government is just trying to spread the virus out slowly so that the NHS can cope with it
It’s real sad times for many just now for many families who have lost loved ones