Both sides going within weeks of each other isn’t bad luck, it’s the tell: same age, same design, same weather — paired parts fail together, not independently. And your passenger unit already being a replacement rather supports the point; someone’s been here before you.
The design history tells you everything about whose fault this is: Magneti Marelli — sole manufacturer of these units worldwide — revised the design repeatedly through production, with the version index on the units running to at least -12. A dozen bites at the same cherry is the manufacturer telling you the original never got there. The big visible change came in 2012, when the third mounting stud was deleted — and if you fit a later light to an early car, that now-vacant third hole in the body needs a grommet and sealant, because it’s a straight water path into the boot. Which matters more than damp lenses: the boot floor is where the roof pump, its foam cradle, and a fair amount of electronics live. On a 2010 car with a leaking-cluster history, lift the boot liner and check the pump cradle for standing water — two minutes, and the foam holds water like a sponge.
So yes — the eBay refurb route is a sensible answer, and I’d do both sides while you’re at it, since the driver’s side has already declared. The alternative maths: new units run £300+ a side from BMW, and used ones carry the same aged strips as yours, so a proper refurbishment of your own known units is arguably the honest middle. One check before shipping: some rapid-flash cases are the bulb carrier contacts rather than the LED strip — a two-minute look at the twist-lock carriers while the clusters are out costs nothing and occasionally saves the postage.