sars said:
Chris_D said:
.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/system-failure-probability
I doubt you will read/understand it so I'll give you the short version;
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
The more things that can go wrong in any given system of things that can go wrong increases the probability of something going wrong in a shorter time period.
That's basic engineering.
You're welcome.
:wink:
I don’t know where to start, you talk about basic engineering and then send a link concerning fibre reinforced plastic
You obviously didn't read further than the first few lines. Predictable. Fail.
sars said:
There’s this thing, oh been out for years, mean time between failures, any company that mass produces any engineered product will statistically know a, how it will fail and b, when it will fail
Citing MTBF (of a component) as an explanation for how manufaturers quantify realiability of the end user product (a car). Seriously? Somewhat of a naive and un-educated statement.
You obviously do not have any product engineering education/background, otherwise you would realise MTBF is a manufacturer-published value used at component and sub-component level and designated as an absolute minimum value for any car manufacturer for reliability and component cost when integrated as part of an overall system during the product development/prototyping phase.
FYI, when a serial-manufacturing company has completed the component selection phase for any given product they usually undertake their own testing/MTBF verification phase to a) verify the manufacturers claims, b) collate the cost/benefit ratio between alternate/second suppliers, c) continuity and uniformity of supply, d) satisfy the product development path requirements of the end user productas defined by the initial product plan.
q96169we said:
Hmm, people starts referencing papers, nice. Seems my three years of PhD research into dependability of computer system and four years of daily work on functional safety may have given me a little bit more materials to type.
Anyway, before I go into other materials, let's discuss the paper you referenced. In any of the system failure probability modeling methods as discussed in the paper or referenced by the paper, have you seen that the time (T) is always an important factor in the modeling? More specifically, the time here is referring to the duration since a system was initially built till the point when the probability is observed. In Layman's terms, the time (T) is usually known as the age of a system.
You are right, they are all basic engineering. However, there is science behine the engineering.
I can verify for you via my 30 years in engineering, 15 of which as a NPD/NPI program manager in the nuclear and aerospace industries that your phd activities, while worthy and applicable to your particular field probably neglected to cover the widely-applied practice, particularly in the general consumer product market, of 'designed-obsolesence'. i.e. T (time) (in this case TTF or Time To Failure) is influenced by deliberate and articulated use of components or systems which are designed to fail within a given time frame. It abstractly attempts to tie in with 'innovation cycles' and 'model revisions'. It's something which is never officially divulged by manufacturers for obvious reasons, but I can verify absolutely for you that it is a 'thing' and it's implemented...a lot.
Claims that cars are more reliable than they have ever been are complete tosh. Maybe your starter motor is better than it was in the 70's but overall, expect to see a lot more system failures when compared to cars of 20 years ago.
A friend of mine has an Audi Q7. It's never been right from day one. He takes it to the dealer to get it fixed under warranty and is asked to park it behind the 9 other cars waiting to be fixed on a daily basis. Fk that in it's left ear. I ran an E36 Coupe for 20 years and racked up 280k miles. I placed an order for a brand new E46 M3 in 2002 and cancelled it (expensively) because I realised that the value of having an utterly reliable car as opposed to a nice but flawed and potentially unreliable new car was more important, to me at least.
It seems 'reliability' has been costed-out of the product development path these days in favour of shorter innovation/sales cycles at an end cost to the consumer.
In any case, good luck with the all gadgets working on your G29 after 10 years.
