As much as we love a Z4M...

[danfrost89]

I'm always interested in the 'business' of collectable cars if not actually interested in owning one - that's why I went for a 3.0si over a Z4M. Absolutely love the Z4M but wouldn't dare touch one. Quite happy tinkering with my cheap 3.0si

Z4M (all variants - breakdown not available) SORN = 544, licensed = 471 - total = 1015.

3.0Si Coupe Manual - SORN = 56, licensed = 204 - total = 260.

These graphs tell a story - more Z4M parked up / stored away than in use. Fair play to those actually using 'em.

Source: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/

 

[B21]

Many possible explanations to that data…and hypotheses…

 

[Mr Tidy]

I'm not sure those figures are particularly accurate, but the numbers may possibly reflect the trend.

I had a couple of 3.0Sis between 2014 and 2019 and loved them, but there was always that nagging itch for an M. After having an unaccompanied test drive in one I knew I just had to have one while I still could (having turned 60) so in 2019 I bought my current one and it just feels so special every time I drive it - albeit at a price.

 

[danfrost89]

I'm not sure those figures are particularly accurate, but the numbers may possibly reflect the trend.

I had a couple of 3.0Sis between 2014 and 2019 and loved them, but there was always that nagging itch for an M. After having an unaccompanied test drive in one I knew I just had to have one while I still could (having turned 60) so in 2019 I bought my current one and it just feels so special every time I drive it - albeit at a price.

Data is from gov.uk (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/vehicles-statistics) so I suspect it's reasonably accurate.

Yeah, I get the itch for an M but it seems likely they're going to significantly increase in price at some point so quite a scary ownership preposition in some ways (for me, at least). It'll be those with low miles, FSH, air con garage, etc, etc that will be worth the mega bucks. Prob not many of those around but they'll drive the price up if/when they come out of the woodwork (as many seem to be hiding in!).

 

[Rockhopper]

Generally speaking the only modern cars that will appreciate in value will be the “cooking” versions so the M’s etc. Most other models are produced in such huge quantities that they will never be worth much despite what people trying to sell them might think.

 

[Zedebee]

I'm always interested in the 'business' of collectable cars if not actually interested in owning one - that's why I went for a 3.0si over a Z4M. Absolutely love the Z4M but wouldn't dare touch one. Quite happy tinkering with my cheap 3.0si

Z4M (all variants - breakdown not available) SORN = 544, licensed = 471 - total = 1015.

3.0Si Coupe Manual - SORN = 56, licensed = 204 - total = 260.

These graphs tell a story - more Z4M parked up / stored away than in use. Fair play to those actually using 'em.

Source: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/

The 3.0Si coupe numbers on Howmanyleft are extremely misleading and a number of buyers have been suckered into buying one (myself included) imagining them to be much rarer than they actually are. I did some analysis on this several years ago which I will try to link to. The problem is dealers registered cars under several different variants, so you need to know where to look. There were over 2,000 registered in the UK and the vast majority of these still survive, which explains why there are so many for sale on Autotrader, eBay, pistonheads etc relative to the handful that you might expect.

Here you go:

How Many Left (E86) - final answer!

To answer the perennial question of “How many coupes left in the UK” I have crunched the DVLAs data and come up with an answer. Now the DVLA’s data is flawed because the coupe date exists under a number of categories, not just “Z4 3.0SI COUPE” and “Z4 3.0SI COUPE AUTO” which is what generally...

z4-forum.com

 

[danfrost89]

The 3.0Si coupe numbers on Howmanyleft are extremely misleading and a number of buyers have been suckered into buying one (myself included) imagining them to be much rarer than they actually are. I did some analysis on this several years ago which I will try to link to. The problem is dealers registered cars under several different variants, so you need to know where to look. There were over 2,000 registered in the UK and the vast majority of these still survive, which explains why there are so many for sale on Autotrader, eBay, pistonheads etc relative to the handful that you might expect.

Yeah, the site does say that it depends how the model has been classified so there's defo room for error there.

Personally not that concerned about the rarity - just really like 'em. I used to be into Integrales and at a certain point in time (i.e. when they were cheap), the majority got written off (young drivers + rust + expensive repairs) so they became even rarer and then the market went bonkers.

The Z4, M apart, isn't quite as special (well, in some ways (doesn't stop Mk 1 and 2 Escorts going for silly money tho!)) but we see a lot being broken for parts now so they'll get rarer quite quickly I'd expect.

 

[Ed Doe]

Unpopular opinion; I can't quite work out what is missing from the receipe, but I don't think the E85/6 M will ever see anything more than modest appreciation for even the lowest mileage/best kept examples.

Just my opinion, but I've kept half an eye on price trends over the years I've owned mine, as well as how they seem to be reviewed by people who own and drive them.

To me, they are a fantastic looking car, and offer a wonderful (if quite particular) driving experience, but they are inherently more compromised both in terms of how they drive compared to an E46 M3, and as a consequence they were rarer and less 'poster car' of their time compared to the E46....

The E85/86 also didn't have have any real motorsport pedigree like the E46.

My take is there has always been something missing from the recipe to make it a real 'future classic' and that's borne out in the comparison between E85/6 and E46 prices, given they are effectively from the same production period. I've read the same thing for years in posts on this foru and on pistonheads 'future classic' 'surefire investment' 'collector condition'. I just can't see it happening.


Anyhoo, to me it's all elementary, I've no plans to ever sell mine, and I doubt anyone would want it anyway
I've no doubt I could have bought something far newer/faster/more interesting, but I just don't care, I love how it looks, I love the challenge it presents to drive it fast on track, and it's nice that when it's parked up at a trackday or the Devil's Diner carpark at the Ring it's almost only the only one there, and seems to get a fair bit of interest which is nice.

Life's too short to worry about future values, buy it and drive the wheels off it

 

[Nick W]

I totally agree with Ed and If you love your Z then value is irrelevant and let's face it as standard the Z is a bit of a crap car. To get the most out of mine I've only had to do a few minor tweeks such as change the entire suspension, bushes, brake discs pads and fluids, geometry, diff ratio, tyre choice, air intake and the wanted list keeps expanding. I drive it like an old man on tracks and don't care how many miles I put on the clock because that's what i bought it for. I do all of my own maintenance, mostly preventative, so the purists consider it worthless. I don't care because now it's more fun and a bit less crap.

 

[Ed Doe]

I totally agree with Ed and If you love your Z then value is irrelevant and let's face it as standard the Z is a bit of a crap car. To get the most out of mine I've only had to do a few minor tweeks such as change the entire suspension, bushes, brake discs pads and fluids, geometry, diff ratio, tyre choice, air intake and the wanted list keeps expanding. I drive it like an old man on tracks and don't care how many miles I put on the clock because that's what i bought it for. I do all of my own maintenance, mostly preventative, so the purists consider it worthless. I don't care because now it's more fun and a bit less crap.

Wot he said! Small tweaks similar to mine then!

 

[Pondy]

Unpopular opinion; I can't quite work out what is missing from the receipt, but I don't think the E85/6 M will ever see anything more than modest appreciation for even the lowest mileage/best kept examples.

Just my opinion, but I've kept half an eye on price trends over the years I've owned mine, as well as how they seem to be reviewed by people who own and drive them.

To me, they are a fantastic looking car, and offer a wonderful (if quite particular) driving experience, but they are inherently more compromised both in terms of how they drive compared to an E46 M3, and as a consequence they were rarer and less 'poster car' of their time compared to the E46....

The E85/86 also didn't have have any real motorsport pedigree like the E46.

My take is there has always been something missing from the recipe to make it a real 'future classic' and that's borne out in the comparison between E85/6 and E46 prices, given they are effectively from the same production period. I've read the same thing for years in posts on this foru and on pistonheads 'future classic' 'surefire investment' 'collector condition'. I just can't see it happening.


Anyhoo, to me it's all elementary, I've no plans to ever sell mine, and I doubt anyone would want it anyway
I've no doubt I could have bought something far newer/faster/more interesting, but I just don't care, I love how it looks, I love the challenge it presents to drive it fast on track, and it's nice that when it's parked up at a trackday or the Devil's Diner carpark at the Ring it's almost only the only one there, and seems to get a fair bit of interest which is nice.

Life's too short to worry about future values, buy it and drive the wheels off it

I agree. I just don't see there being enough demand for an E85 or E86 (M or not) in the future for them to become a valuable 'classic'.
Car values are like anything; driven by supply and demand.

If demand is high and the supply is limited, prices will increase.

Good old cars which are uncommon will always hold some value. Putting a 150k miles E86M with a dubious history away and presuming it will be worth money one day is not a good idea IMO.

I have spent a lot of this summer being immersed in the 'classic car scene' at various shows and meets. I have spoken to many many people about many many different cars. The overwhelming factor for people to buy a specific model is nostalgia. Cars they coveted in their youth or that their dads had are highly desirable and therefore command high prices.

The classic 'fast Ford' market comment always comes up when talking of old cars. The reason why anything Ford from the 1970s and 80s is worth money is because there is a whole generation of just the right age now who want them; for nostalgia. And supply is limited because most were scrapped years ago.

If there are hundreds of E86Ms sitting in garages permanently SORNed, it is for one reason only. The owners think they have an investment and are 'waiting for the day'. That day may never come, though.

The other issue with old cars is the markets change. Anything made before WW2 is now virtually worthless because no-one still alive wants them. Their market has (literally) died.

 

[BMWZ4MC]

Wot he said! Small tweaks similar to mine then!

Yep, all that (except the diff ratio) and more…

 

[BMWZ4MC]

The other issue with old cars is the markets change. Anything made before WW2 is now virtually worthless because no-one still alive wants them. Their market has (literally) died.

Tha’s true with less ancient cars too - the E Type market is softening as octogenarians shuffle off.

 

[TomK]

Generally speaking the only modern cars that will appreciate in value will be the “cooking” versions so the M’s etc. Most other models are produced in such huge quantities that they will never be worth much despite what people trying to sell them might think.

A minor pedantry point... the 'cooking' version of a car is regarded as the basic everyday model, not one with any flair or performance.

 

[Rockhopper]

Didn't know that!

 

[tomscott]

“Absolutely love the Z4M but wouldn’t dare touch one.”

I do understand why people can be cautious about them, particularly if they’ve read about the usual S54-related issues and the costs that can come with them. That said, I think the reputation for being frighteningly expensive to own is probably a little overstated.

I’ve owned two Z4Ms over the last 10 years and haven’t had any major problems with either. I was never particularly interested in the regular Z4s because, for me, they didn’t feel special enough. That doesn’t make them bad cars at all, they just weren’t what I was looking for.

What makes the fear around the Z4M slightly surprising to me is that we’re talking about a 20-year-old, naturally aspirated straight-six with an engine that is extremely well understood by now. There are plenty of respected specialists who know the S54 inside out, and virtually every common issue has been documented, diagnosed and solved many times over.

The car itself is also relatively analogue. There aren’t layers of complicated modern electronics, hybrid systems or highly integrated technology to worry about. Mechanically, it’s a fairly straightforward car. Most home mechanics can solve 80-90% of issues in the garage if your inclined to do so.

That obviously doesn’t mean ownership is risk-free. You need to understand the known weak points, budget appropriately and maintain the car properly. But when you consider the purchase price, performance and character, I think they’re remarkably robust cars with comparatively few catastrophic failure points.

I also don’t really see them as an investment, despite the way they’re sometimes discussed.

My Z4M Coupé had 43k miles when I bought it in 2011 for £17.5k. Adjusted for inflation, that’s roughly £27k today, which is probably towards the upper end of what an equivalent car would currently achieve.

The Roadsters have arguably done even worse in real terms. I paid £14.5k for mine in 2019 with 63k miles. That’s around £19k in today’s money, while a similar 63k-mile car might be worth roughly £15.5k now and thats probably higher end.

So while values have held up reasonably well in nominal terms, inflation changes the picture quite considerably.

Add tax and running costs its not a conversation worth having.

Watching the market, cars sit for agggggeeessss and looking at the usual websites skus the data. It might look like the values are ok but barely any move. Sale price vs actual cost are very different things that you dont see.

With the economy as it is if your after a car, now's the time. There are most certainly bargains to be had if you press hard enough.

And as for giving people credit for actually using them, I think that perhaps says more about how we’ve started to view certain older performance cars. They’re special cars, absolutely, but they were built to be driven. I’d rather enjoy one for what it is than treat it like some sort of untouchable museum piece.

 

[danfrost89]

“Absolutely love the Z4M but wouldn’t dare touch one.”

I do understand why people can be cautious about them, particularly if they’ve read about the usual S54-related issues and the costs that can come with them. That said, I think the reputation for being frighteningly expensive to own is probably a little overstated.

Sorry, I didn't mean 'cos I'm scared of the complexity, more scared of devaluing it as I like tweak, typically OEM+, my cars. I keep all the original parts (which can be an expensive route) just in case but I enjoy the tinkering.

And as for giving people credit for actually using them, I think that perhaps says more about how we’ve started to view certain older performance cars. They’re special cars, absolutely, but they were built to be driven. I’d rather enjoy one for what it is than treat it like some sort of untouchable museum piece.

Totally agree but given the number SORN'd it looks like some do want them in the museum!

With regard to the other posts and saying it's generational - absolutely. There are plenty of 50-somethings buying Golf GTI's for £20k and Mk1 Mexico's for god-knows-how-much because it's the car they couldn't have when they were young. Nothing wrong with that but as another poster said, likely cyclical as we've seen with the E Type. There's basically a 30-35 year lag by the look of it - on that basis you've got your Z4M's for another 10+ years

I've read a bit about how at the hypercar end of the market, because there is no tax on the appreciation of the value, that's partially why values of Bugatti's, etc have increased so much. Perhaps it's the 'old rich boys club' where if they all pay £800k for 'em day one, price goes up, they all dump at £3m and get the tax free benefit...

I sold my 16v Integrale for £4k back in the day and is now worth at least £40k (it's SORN'd...). I have a VX220 and many of them bemoan the price as the Elise has gone up quite a bit and the VX220 is, technically at least, the better car with its Exige chassis, turbo, etc. The snobbery is hilarious as the original Elise extensively used Rover parts but turn their noses up at Vauxhall parts - weird.

I definitely agree the investment piece is about standard, low mileage cars hence my not really wanting a Z4M. Unless it's already a high mileage one so kinda past that point... One for next year perhaps once I've had some value of the 3.0si.

 

[Oilyfingers]

Well they definitely seem to be able to clock up the miles.
This one has done almost 600.000 kms