Xenon bulbs usually fade/change colour before failing, so I don't believe it will be the bulb. I would definitely go for the ballast and water ingress. Get it removed and drained before it fails completely - otherwise its around £80 to replace with an eBay ballast (many times more from the dealers!). There is a guide on here in the "How To" section that shows how to remove the bumper, and the ballast is under the headlight. the ballast can be opened using torx drivers, just remember to use some sealant when putting it back together.
If it is water ingress, you will also need to address the entry point - usually mis-alignment or dried out seals on the rear hatches. Either buy new from the dealer (around £10 per side) or try to repair the existing ones - look out for creases in the seals, and used some gummi pledge (or other lubricant) on the seals