original guvnor said:
For me the EU referendum displayed a few key messages. The most obvious one being that the "metropolitan elite" residing in London and other big cities are totally out of touch with the rest of the U.K. London has done very well out of globalisation and the EU. It's hardly surprising people felt like they wanted to stay. Where I live, in north Notts, we have done very poorly out of the EU and globalisation. All of our mines are shut, we have a relatively unskilled labour force, a lack of government or EU investment in improving infrastructure whilst watching billions spent on Crossrail (London) and HS2 (all about shipping people into London in greater numbers). At the same time the growth in migrants locally has been very noticeable, putting strains on schools, hospitals etc. Every time you mention that one of the liberal elite shouts you down as either a "racist" "Luddite" "daily mail reader" etc. Someone has even used one of those phrases on here. That's why 71% of my constituency voted out. You'll find no regrets up here. If you redid the referendum the out vote would be larger.
Anyone who is making a serious judgment about the impact of Brexit based on a temporary fall in sterling needs to have a good, hard look at themselves. The merits (or otherwise) of this decision won't be known for 10 years at least. A lot of the talk about what terms Article 50 will be on is just posturing. I'm sure an amicable settlement that suits both sides will be the eventual outcome. After all it's in everyone's interests to stay on friendly terms.
In my opinion, Brexit is a positive step. I think the European project will fail, I think the notion that we can't be a successful nation without hanging onto the EU's coat tails is nonsense. What it has hopefully rammed home (and this is something the PM seems to have cottoned on to) is that this country needs to be governed for all of its people, not just a select few in the City of London who've had their snouts in the trough for far too long. The whole economy of the country needs to rebalanced away from an over-reliance on the South East, spreading wealth more evenly.
As for those who say we shouldn't entrust the British electorate with a decision like this - you are the problem. It's that attitude that lost this vote. We trusted the British public to make the right call when it came to going into the EU back in the seventies, and for the time, it was the right decision. Therefore we have to trust the Bristish public when they call time on the EU. They don't normally get it wrong - they vote for what the times need.
I understand and in many elements agree with your philosophy, however I don't think Brexit will have any long term impact on the economic centre of the UK, being SE focussed, spreading wealth, etc. Nor sadly do I really believe the end result after all the negotiations will we actually reduce migration as we'll end up conceding to continue to trade with Europe and frankly many industries rely on it to survive. Of course most of what is discussed is speculation as we just don't know as the negotiations have over 2 years to go from now and real end game is 10, 20 or more years down the road.
Not referencing your or any specific posts, but what does concern me and going back to OP's question is that ironically the short term impact will be far, far worse than is currently recognised with good news a long way off and for the less well off a really significant issue and I don't mean a year or so:
The pound is much lower and will stay low making everything more expensive from holidays to food to petrol to cars and on an on and not slightly, but really big hikes which hit the less well off so much harder
We're finally seeing some hints of sense in oil markets production, so prices will soon rise (10% in the next year seems average) and they are of course $ priced so multiply up.
Our interest rates will drop or stay the same, just as other economies such as the US move to an increase later this year making Sterling weaker still
There will be more quantitive easing, in effect further reducing our wealth
Every time a Euro country makes an anti UK comment or the UK government talk tough we'll take another battering and I could continue to add indicators...
Sure there may be some investment on a cheap £ and we may export more, but the guy in the street isn't going to benefit from it, seeing just a massive cost of living rise and soon inflation. People are not tolerant so I see significant issues on the horizon
Am I personally worried - no not really. I can absorb increased costs (and I'd venture to say most Z4 owners can or we'd not be driving such cars). My business is mainly in Europe and in Euros and the sterling slump has made me some very significant personal on paper profit already. The stock rise has added nicely to that. This chaos has positioned me so I could just about retire while in my 50's, so something of an unexpected but pleasant 'win'
Will we make a success of it? I'm sure and am really behind hoping we do, but I doubt the British public will have the patience to weather it for years on end.
It'll be more than a bumpy decade or so to come...
By the seaside...