To gamble or not to gamble ... (currency)

pvr

pvr

Dutch
 Ruler of the South East UK
With the election coming on, I expect that either the pound will plummet or rise depending on who will win.

So ... should I cash a dollar cheque that I received for a project or hold on to it.
 
Good idea. Who do you think would cause it to plummet?

I don't know for sure, but I thought, in Western countries at least, that currency typically took a bump after an election? Other issue is Goldman Sachs - I only know Barclays, but that took a hit after the SEC announcement on Friday. Thought is that it could hit the markets pretty hard... I would suspect also the dollar.

(I know less about this than I do about cars, but it is interesting)
 
With the interest rate being nothing, I don't lose out holding on to a cheque for a bit. A 10% swing could either pocket me or lose me 25k GBP. The win sounds attractive, the loss not so ...
 
I keep forgetting how bad the interest rate is.

I won't ask outright, in case clients are on passing through, but if it doesn't erase all profit must be worth a punt! If cash flow can take it, and the pound does rally you could open a dollar account and wait for it to move again. My FD loves this sort of thing... despite the stress it causes him!

Brave man... but I guess that's what gets you an M and a nice garage to house it :thumbsup:
 
I have already paid the sub contractors in GBP, so it is now purely the gambling part. Previously, I had my exchanges covered to avoid exchange differences but the client has now stopped that cover.
 
Take a look at forward exchange prices - that should give you a good feel.

I work with a company that constantly looks at the position now Vs the last 5 years range and bases decisions around that.

Problem is in the end it's just what you posted - a gamble
 
10% drop so far due to loony voting. Think I will hold on another couple of days for the effect to really set in. Trip to the showroom by the middle of next week :thumbsup:
 
Excellent work, PVR! Going to the showroom for anything in particular or too soon to say?

Started looking at shares this morning and have been a little uncertain... I'd forgotten about this, certainly has me feeling a little more bullish!
 
If Gordon tries to hang on, it should devalue to about the level of a 911 profit for me or so :)
 
pvr said:
If Gordon tries to hang on, it should devalue to about the level of a 911 profit for me or so :)
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Nice work - I gambled the other way (but only on USD holiday costs) and wish the voting classes had been a little more decisive - A Labour outright victory would have been better than the mess we've been left with.
p.s. Imagine the currency markets will stabilise once arrangements between the parties have been reached - so get that cheque cashed just before they announce! :thumbsup:
p.p.s. Wont begin to guess how big the cheque is if a couple of % swing will net you a 911 style profit.
 
cj10jeeper said:
Take a look at forward exchange prices - that should give you a good feel.
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Nah that's just the impact of different interest rates in the two currencies - Trust me I'm an ACT. Didn't stop me losing out on my travel money though - glorified gambling!
 
Guiseley said:
A Labour outright victory would have been better than the mess we've been left with.
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I suspect the current mess is much better for such speculation... :thumbsup: Everyone is emasculated so the economy is on autopilot for a while.....
 
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