This is one for Ron...

  • Thread starter Thread starter Anonymous
  • Start date Start date
A

Anonymous

Guest
Interesting conversation on the Andrew Marr show this morning with Sir/Professor David Spiegelhalter on statistics etc

To avoid antagonising those forum members who see my postings as anti English and anti UK government I’ll refrain from some of his comments and those of Andrew Marr...

He referred to his work elsewhere.. https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

And of course with statistics you can say what you like ..but...when it comes to age it’s definitely bad news for you Ron..

What’s interesting is the point where the rate that you’re probability of dying from COVID 19 rises almost in line with your possible death rate from other causes, unlike say Spanish Flu..even worse compared to the rate at which people normally die with age there is a blip around the 55-75 age range that shows that group are even more badly affected by Covid19

So you’re going to be unlucky to die from it, but no guarantees, under 40..but then it starts to ratchet up...

Interesting dilemma in risk management, it won’t help much for arguing about keeping the yoof’ lockdown, save that they will be alright but could spread it to those in higher age groups..in this context anybody under 40 who will feel pretty immortal unless they are in a high risk group..they will want to go out and live, work n play as normal..

Being a person on the imminent cusp of two normally described age ranges it doesn’t offer me much comfort before or after my next birthday..if I catch it I’m 40 times more likely to die than someone under 40...

He also distils it down to the average shortening of lives by months..in my case on average all my male age group will live 18 months shorter than they would otherwise..

Anyway if you like numbers you’ll enjoy it..as a purely academic exercise..
 

Attachments

  • F21ADCB3-E24F-463B-8D68-D0550388B298.png
    F21ADCB3-E24F-463B-8D68-D0550388B298.png
    101.3 KB · Views: 727
So if I read that graph correctly, taking it from about age 58 onwards;
Although more men than women are dying from Covid-19, given that more men would have died anyway at that age, it is in fact women who should be worrying more? A greater percentage of women who could have expected to live longer, are succumbing to Covid whereas it's basically weeding out the men who were due to pop their clogs this year anyway.
 
I’m sure Ronk will be very grateful you’ve rammed that down his throat on a Sunday. Not that he’s bright enough to have worked it out for himself long ago.... :roll:
 
john-e89 said:
I’m sure Ronk will be very grateful you’ve rammed that down his throat on a Sunday. Not that he’s bright enough to have worked it out for himself long ago.... :roll:
Click to expand...

:rofl: :P
 
enuff_zed said:
So if I read that graph correctly, taking it from about age 58 onwards;
Although more men than women are dying from Covid-19, given that more men would have died anyway at that age, it is in fact women who should be worrying more? A greater percentage of women who could have expected to live longer, are succumbing to Covid whereas it's basically weeding out the men who were due to pop their clogs this year anyway.
Click to expand...

Er not quite..

The dotted line shows that from 58 ish more men die than women normally..hence why care homes have more women than men in them..but..
the circles indicate the elevated affects on all (men and wome) of COVID..and within that circle men are around twice as likely to die anyway..

So even taking into account the wheel of fortune and fate..being 60+ male is bad news when it comes to COVID, especially if your black, obese, with hypertension and diabetes, with COPD..

Its from a bad analogy viewpoint a bit like being bombed by different size bombs..

Say handgrenade size bombs only fell on 40 year olds and 1000lb bombs only fell on 65 year olds

Say the same number of bombs fell per square mile per day..

Then if say 100 grenades fell unannounced out of the sky per day then your chances of being killed are less than if say 100 1000lbs bombs fell in the same period..as I said bad analogy..

Probabilities are strange things..I did work in the past on motorcycle safey, crash helmets in fact..

We showed, statistically that if you:
where in the East End of London
drove a Yamaha FS1E
wore an orange polycarbonate crash helmet with stickers

than you were a goner..
 
Pbondar said:
enuff_zed said:
So if I read that graph correctly, taking it from about age 58 onwards;
Although more men than women are dying from Covid-19, given that more men would have died anyway at that age, it is in fact women who should be worrying more? A greater percentage of women who could have expected to live longer, are succumbing to Covid whereas it's basically weeding out the men who were due to pop their clogs this year anyway.
Click to expand...

Er not quite..

The dotted line shows that from 58 ish more men die than women normally..hence why care homes have more women than men in them..but..
the circles indicate the elevated affects on all (men and wome) of COVID..and within that circle men are around twice as likely to die anyway..

So even taking into account the wheel of fortune and fate..being 60+ male is bad news when it comes to COVID, especially if your black, obese, with hypertension and diabetes, with COPD..

Its from a bad analogy viewpoint a bit like being bombed by different size bombs..

Say handgrenade size bombs only fell on 40 year olds and 1000lb bombs only fell on 65 year olds

Say the same number of bombs fell per square mile per day..

Then if say 100 grenades fell unannounced out of the sky per day then your chances of being killed are less than if say 100 1000lbs bombs fell in the same period..as I said bad analogy..

Probabilities are strange things..I did work in the past on motorcycle safey, crash helmets in fact..

We showed, statistically that if you:
where in the East End of London
drove a Yamaha FS1E
wore an orange polycarbonate crash helmet with stickers

than you were a goner..
Click to expand...

Ah, ok, now I follow you. Apologies, I hadn't picked up on the fact that the black circle was a total of both sexes (or all 5 or however many there are supposed to be now!!)
I'll go back to my beer.
Currently drinking a porter called 'Nightmare' which seems appropriate :)
 
john-e89 said:
I’m sure Ronk will be very grateful you’ve rammed that down his throat on a Sunday. Not that he’s bright enough to have worked it out for himself long ago.... :roll:
Click to expand...

It is another fairpoint save that Ron is one of the biggest promulgaters of COVID related matter..if he takes umbrage then I will apologise, delete the record and never ever upset Ron again..my comments although not in jest where aimed at a factual discourse given the age profile and much debate on this matter here..

The lounge is a place where I see wide range of matters are discussed, some IMHO, in bad taste..

The title was merely a facetious comment..but you knew that anyway..
 
Pbondar said:
john-e89 said:
I’m sure Ronk will be very grateful you’ve rammed that down his throat on a Sunday. Not that he’s bright enough to have worked it out for himself long ago.... :roll:
Click to expand...

It is another fairpoint save that Ron is one of the biggest promulgaters of COVID related matter..if he takes umbrage then I will apologise, delete the record and never ever upset Ron again..my comments although not in jest where aimed at a factual discourse given the age profile and much debate on this matter here..

The lounge is a place where I see wide range of matters are discussed, some IMHO, in bad taste..

The title was merely a facetious comment..but you knew that anyway..
Click to expand...

Well I first read the title and assumed it was the same as when someone offered you a beer.
You should always say "Yes please, one for me and one for Ron..................................Later ron." :wink:
 
Pbondar said:
enuff_zed said:
So if I read that graph correctly, taking it from about age 58 onwards;
Although more men than women are dying from Covid-19, given that more men would have died anyway at that age, it is in fact women who should be worrying more? A greater percentage of women who could have expected to live longer, are succumbing to Covid whereas it's basically weeding out the men who were due to pop their clogs this year anyway.
Click to expand...

Er not quite..

The dotted line shows that from 58 ish more men die than women normally..hence why care homes have more women than men in them..but..
the circles indicate the elevated affects on all (men and wome) of COVID..and within that circle men are around twice as likely to die anyway..

So even taking into account the wheel of fortune and fate..being 60+ male is bad news when it comes to COVID, especially if your black, obese, with hypertension and diabetes, with COPD..

Its from a bad analogy viewpoint a bit like being bombed by different size bombs..

Say handgrenade size bombs only fell on 40 year olds and 1000lb bombs only fell on 65 year olds

Say the same number of bombs fell per square mile per day..

Then if say 100 grenades fell unannounced out of the sky per day then your chances of being killed are less than if say 100 1000lbs bombs fell in the same period..as I said bad analogy..

Probabilities are strange things..I did work in the past on motorcycle safey, crash helmets in fact..

We showed, statistically that if you:
where in the East End of London
drove a Yamaha FS1E
wore an orange polycarbonate crash helmet with stickers

than you were a goner..
Click to expand...

It’s the glue :o
Rob
 
Thanks for the heads up Peter :thumbsup:

I’ve had super weekend - I even went to Tesco for a Click & Collect to stock up with some nice wine etc., and it seemed almost like an afternoon out - I woke this morning and had a leisurely breakfast in a sunny conservatory and afterwards looked at my daily dose of Z4 Forum to consolidate my feeling of well being - Oh joy. I have to admit being quite happy with my lot - but I’ve just read this post.

I’m off now to listen to an hour of Leonard Cohen then slit my throat :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
 
Oh dear, before you take the drastic action of listening to Leonard, remember that population statistics are not applicable to individuals.
 
If the Grim Reaper does get as ultimately I suppose he will, I’ve left my loggon details in the sealed envelope in my safe to enable my car to sold to the highest bidder! :rofl:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom