signed 
Anticipate exponential growth - it's the doubling time you need to calculatethepits said:dr_john said:it also said that the total signed is now 189, we need 100,000 (by next March).
Don't know how long 189 has taken so can't do the calculation, but we better get going!
Yes we should as I've done the rough calculations![]()
Running 5 1/2 hours with only 189 posts = 2,910 days for 100,000 = almost 8 years![]()
Remind me again on the formulae to use... :wink:BMWZ4MC said:Anticipate exponential growth - it's the doubling time you need to calculate![]()
I'm just a carpenter, I keep epidemiologists for the tedious stuffthepits said:Remind me again on the formulae to use... :wink:BMWZ4MC said:Anticipate exponential growth - it's the doubling time you need to calculate![]()
BMWZ4MC said:I'm just a carpenter, I keep epidemiologists for the tedious stuff![]()

thepits said:BMWZ4MC said:I'm just a carpenter, I keep epidemiologists for the tedious stuff![]()
Eh? "Epidemiology is the science that studies the patterns, causes, and effects of health and disease conditions in defined populations" :?
nowadays the term exponential function is almost exclusively used as a shortcut for the natural exponential function ex, where e is Euler's number, a number (approximately 2.718281828) such that the function ex is its own derivative.[1][2] The exponential function is used to model a relationship in which a constant change in the independent variable gives the same proportional change (i.e. percentage increase or decrease) in the dependent variable. The function is often written as exp(x), especially when it is impractical to write the independent variable as a superscript. The exponential function is widely used in physics, chemistry, engineering, mathematical biology, economics and mathematics.
Exponential function
Representation e^x \,
Inverse \ln x \,
Derivative e^x \,
Indefinite Integral e^x + C \,
The graph of y = ex is upward-sloping, and increases faster as x increases. The graph always lies above the x-axis but can get arbitrarily close to it for negative x; thus, the x-axis is a horizontal asymptote. The slope of the tangent to the graph at each point is equal to its y coordinate at that point. The inverse function is the natural logarithm ln(x); because of this, some old texts[3] refer to the exponential function as the antilogarithm.
In general, the variable x can be any real or complex number or even an entirely different kind of mathematical object; see the formal definition below.
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Which is why I stick to the carpentry :wink:PerryGunn said:I think you'll find that epidemiology also covers the rate of spread of infectious disease - such as the current ebola outbreak. Some quite complex maths can be involved as there are a lot of factors to account for, each of which can vary over a range causing growth estimates to lose precision as they are projected further ahead
I didn't waste time trying to comprehend the ramble from the pits, rather got on with writing my reply :lol:PerryGunn said:Typical - type in a long answer and find the Doc has got in with a quick one :lol:
If I'm honest, I'm more impressed by the reverse tracking of outbreaks to look for the index case - that sort of analysis is really complicatedBMWZ4MC said:Which is why I stick to the carpentry :wink:PerryGunn said:I think you'll find that epidemiology also covers the rate of spread of infectious disease - such as the current ebola outbreak. Some quite complex maths can be involved as there are a lot of factors to account for, each of which can vary over a range causing growth estimates to lose precision as they are projected further ahead
PerryGunn said:Typical - type in a long answer and find the Doc has got in with a quick one :lol:
dr_john said:PerryGunn said:Typical - type in a long answer and find the Doc has got in with a quick one :lol:
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I don't think the long answer was typed in, seemed more like a copy and paste job from Wikipedia to me![]()
Quick short answers are best, leave one less open to criticsm.
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That's a very non-committal response - typical MD, can't give a straight answer... :wink:BMWZ4MC said:dr_john said:Quick short answers are best, leave one less open to criticsm.
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Perhaps