I was at the DVLA Auction on Wednesday and was talking to various buyers and dealers there. The general impression was that plates were now going for silly money at these events.
The DVLA have done so well at marketing the events and with buying possible either in the hall, by phone, internet and absent pre-bids, the increased hype is attracting unrealistic bids. i.e. They are achieving prices in the auction that you wont possibly match outside.
For instance, in a previous auction SY57EMS sold for a hammer price of £3300 (£4300 inc fees). I've had SY67EMS on ebay for 12 months at £1500-£1900 all in, and not had a sniff yet.
3 OJX also sold for £3k at the auction this week. I've got 111 OJX and I'll struggle to get an offer over £1500 in 12 months.
Therefore, it is difficult to buy a plate at Auction with the possibility of being able to re-sell it without a loss, let alone any profit afterwards.
I have also watched one company (Reg transfers) who attend every auction with an admin team of about 4/5 people. They bid on loads of plates, but they are bidding on behalf of people who could easily attend the auction and put in an absent maximum bid themselves, without needing to pay a commission and also put the money into the agents bank account in advance, on the basis that they might be successful.
I also watched those 9 or 10 plates that didnt sell at all under the hammer, due to no bids. Within an hour after, most had been snapped up at the reserve price. suggesting that they were bought by people who had no connection or intention of buying them originally, but perhaps failed on their own targets and wanted to come away with something. '333 VV' failed to sell under the hammer, but was snapped up within 15 mins for the reserve of £2200. Its a nice looking plate but I reckon they'll struggle to find anyone with those initials and and prepared to pay £3k+ on the open market.
I think the market is being fueled by naive people who are prepared to pay inflated prices and also via agents. It's Ok if you can justify the money and are happy to sit on it long term and for your own satisfaction.