Residual value of our Z4s after the new release?

A

azroadie

Member
 Scottsdale, AZ
I did't want to hijack another thread so I thought I'd start this one.

From another post, we were discussing that you could now buy a new Z4M for as little as $40,000 USD and that you could probably find a used z4M for as little as $30,000. I said I'd have to see it to believe it. :P So if paid this little for a new Z4M, please speak up!

Anyway, that got me thinking about what our cars will be worth with the new release. We already know we can get them really cheap...at least here in the U.S. So my question is, with the shift of production away from the US and the increasingly weak dollar, will the new Z4 be much more expensive? If so, will this cause our Z4s to hold their value much more as the cost for a new one could be significanly higer?
 
This is the source of tons of speculation. The Z6 will be a folding hardtop car built in Germany, so it's going to be pricier than the Z4M, as well as heavier and larger. It'll also have cool new features like Comfort Access and a twin-turbo 3-liter, and around 2013 we'll see one with the new M3 V8 engine in it. It's give and take.

In the end, price is determined by supply and demand, and while the supply will stagnate, demand for our cars will decrease over time and it will follow your typical depreciation curve - steep early on, flattening in later years.
 
Cars deprecitate constantly and continuously in their typical flattening curve, punctuated by perhaps a spike caused by initial shortages and for a few models a later in life ressurgence caused by some sort of cult or collector status.

Any new model will be so far removed from the current Z4 as to have little impact as the Z4 was to the Z3.
 
I have always owned a second car in my 30 plus years of driving, I am patient and usually research what I want next and wait for it to pop up at a somewhat good price. I also usually sell in two years and try something else. Now the Z4 was the bomb when I first saw it. Having never owned a BMW I found a Z3, (wanted to try the BMW brand at a low entry point $) drove it for a year and a half and sold it for about $500.00 less than I paid for it. Now I found a 2003 Z4 it was pristine and I did my research and thought I had made an incredible deal. Two years go by and I am out of warranty and decide to sell. The car is still pristine, but guess what the bottom fell out of the Z4 market. I sold the Z4 but I can honestly say the Z4 has seen more depreciation than I have ever encountered in any of my previous car purchases. Well long story short a few months go by and I start looking for another Z4, this time on Swapalease. I find a fully loaded 2007 Z4 that is only 3 months old. The owner had managed to get $10,000.00 off of sticker. Now my payoff at turn in is a lot less than some people are trying to selll their 2005's and 06's. Over the last two years there were some fantastic deals to be had and some Z4 owners are into their cars for about $10-12,000.00 less at purchase than other Z4 owners. The lease specials also play into this. In my opinion the Z4 was a miss except for enthusiats like us. BMW missed the SLK market, which they are now trying to get into. Also yes I know the fundemental rule of car ownership
a car is not an investment (unless it is special interest), but BMW has artificially tainted the market by heavliy discounting the market each fall, so that anyone who purchased a Z4 in spring of 06 and 07 will have their trade in value plummet. One more point, some of the people that paid the MSRP will think nothing of dumping to get the new BMW. Just my two cents and after my long winded story, yes I think values will plummet and I hope early Z4's stay stable around $15-18,000.00, cause most Z4's on resale have not been driven many miles
 
When I started to look at cars, I was somewhat surprised at the difference between sticker and the depreciated value of a 2-4 year old Z. I found a very nice 2.5i with sport pkg, zenons, heated seats, wood dash, etc, with 33,000 miles-and new run-flats-for under $23,000. Most people don't know that it wasn't new off the show room floor. If memory serves, the sticker was $48,000 US. The market for 3.0 engines seems quite a bit stronger, maybe $4-5,000 more.
 
I don't worry about depreciation as much since I usually buy a car to drive it for many years (leases for short-term use).

What does bother me is when the prices go down so much that you have tasteless teenagers buying them and ricing them up. Of course it's their right to do whatever they want. I've only seen an occasional pic of a riced out Z4, but it breaks my heart. It's like seeing an innocent girl being prostituted! You just want to save her! :|
 
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