Gambling

sp3ctre

sp3ctre

Administrator
Staff member
I put a small wager on Nadal to win the Tennis at the weekend, came out on top. I used betfair.co.uk to place the bet and one thing I did notice was the amount the odds fluctuated over the course of the game, for seemingly insignificant reasons. The way I saw it I could've ended up with a win/win situation by placing 2 bets at strategic points in the match,

Anyway, I was looking into this and found this site:

http://home2.btconnect.com/jmandjp/Strategies/Horses.htm

Now I am the ultimate synic and I know ultimately the bookies always win, but with betfair you are betting against each other, and by laying bets in certain ways it "seems" like you can generate win/win (or no lose!) situations. Hedge betting seems to intrigue me the most, making the most of fluctuating odds.

My question is has anyone done any of this, and what are the +ives and -ives of the methods in your opinion?

Please dont just post the usual "gambling is bad, you WILL lose and you WILL go to hell etc...". I'm not going to get into it big time, I just thought I might have fun with £50 during Wimbledon.

Cheers guys
 
Gambling is bad, you WILL lose and you WILL go to hell etc....



Sorry I couldn't help it, I am a smart a$$.

Don't know anything about it.
 
You, will not collect 200 quid, you will go directly to jail and when you die, you will go to hell for gambling.

<2 Zero taught me to post this.>
 
20ducks said:
You, will not collect 200 quid, you will go directly to jail and when you die, you will go to hell for gambling.

<2 Zero taught me to post this.>
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Yea yea blame me!!
 
So that is where the site donations go ... Gambling, drugs and women? :o
 
Well, as long as you don't waste it :D

That does look quite interesting though, in the casino you can't win because the odds are against you but betfair works a bit differently, doesn't it? I'm going to have a good read of that site you posted and see if it makes sense.

Why don't you set up a Z4-forum bet where we all Paypal you £5 or £10 then we take a share in the winnings?
 
I work in the industry. Yes you can - but there are 'bots' (automatic programs feeding into Betfair API) and numerous traders with highly sophisticated trading platforms that also plug straight into Betfairs systems who do this professionally looking for the hedge (aren't we all :D ) and a casual punter won't be able to compete.

If you're looking to lay off bets when you're certain of the win, go for it, I nearly always do - but it's all about timing, with Nedal, he would have been short priced to start with and laying off near the end of the game would have cancelled most of your winnings - but with the guarantee of making a some money win or lose - a very appealing position.

I've seen many a horse fall at the final fence or throw a rider with people trading bets at 1.01 (0.01 back for every 1unit bet for the uninitiated) - sheer madness. You've got ask, out of 100 races, how many horses fail to win when the returns are 1.01. Same with football - mad bets made with last second goals cocking things up.

Also, with live TV, you never get true live, so traders 'ringside' get the heads up a several second earlier - equally, there's some satellite/TV providers that get the feed a second faster - makes a huge difference. You think SKY TV get a Football match to you first, think again, I know of a European provider one that gets it a few seconds earlier.

As always, look for value, do your own research and buyer beware - if Nedal has a 30% chance of winning Wimbledon and he's trading at 3.8 right now (implying a 26% chance of the win) then to you, there's an inconsistency in the betting and the bet has value

Good luck... :D
 
Very interesting... That's the sort of thing I am looking for. Not looking to make my fortune on this, but just interested in the concept :thumbsup:


pop_sausage said:
I work in the industry. Yes you can - but there are 'bots' (automatic programs feeding into Betfair API) and numerous traders with highly sophisticated trading platforms that also plug straight into Betfairs systems who do this professionally looking for the hedge (aren't we all :D ) and a casual punter won't be able to compete.

If you're looking to lay off bets when you're certain of the win, go for it, I nearly always do - but it's all about timing, with Nedal, he would have been short priced to start with and laying off near the end of the game would have cancelled most of your winnings - but with the guarantee of making a some money win or lose - a very appealing position.

I've seen many a horse fall at the final fence or throw a rider with people trading bets at 1.01 (0.01 back for every 1unit bet for the uninitiated) - sheer madness. You've got ask, out of 100 races, how many horses fail to win when the returns are 1.01. Same with football - mad bets made with last second goals cocking things up.

Also, with live TV, you never get true live, so traders 'ringside' get the heads up a several second earlier - equally, there's some satellite/TV providers that get the feed a second faster - makes a huge difference. You think SKY TV get a Football match to you first, think again, I know of a European provider one that gets it a few seconds earlier.

As always, look for value, do your own research and buyer beware - if Nedal has a 30% chance of winning Wimbledon and he's trading at 3.8 right now (implying a 26% chance of the win) then to you, there's an inconsistency in the betting and the bet has value

Good luck... :D
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PhilDZ4 said:
ovrkll said:
^^Oh, you're buying at HC??? :evil:
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I believe Aebous just volunteered. :thumbsup:
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I most likely will not be there...have one on me though. Also, have at least 7 each for me. Because that's how many it would take for me to be buzzed. So for those so inclined that's an additional 7 beers for you.
 
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