CV-19 day 44 / light at the end ?

[TitanTim]

Whilst a difficult situation to Govern if I'm not mistaken we have the second highest death rates in the world. Personally I feel lockdown was too late and seems to me it's being indirectly released a month too early by putting the economy first.

If you're below the age of 45 it would be foolish to buy the herd immunity card. Seems to me it's pure pot luck if you end up critically I'll or worse regardless of age. Testing i think is still the key, something else the country has lagged behind on.

Unsure this Government can be congratulated but at least we don't have a Government telling us to drink disinfectant.

Tim.

 

[exdos]

Done very well? Applauded? I'm genuinely surprised to hear you say that

No doubt you are comparing the published statistics:
Take a look at this article about German care homes: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/04/10/care-a10.html
It states: "The large number of deaths stems from the failure to implement timely countermeasures or follow them, a shortage of staff, overworked personnel and the absence of personal protective equipment (PPE).”

And this one: https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/17...lf-of-europe-s-covid-19-deaths-occur-says-new in which it states: "The data it collated across five European countries suggests that between 42 and 57 percent of deaths related to COVID-19 have so far occurred in nursing homes."

Then we have the the reports that people in the BAME group are 4 times more likely to catch the virus than others: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-ons-finds
Bearing in mind that in the UK, we have many people from a host of different ethnic backgrounds within the BAME groups in comparison to many of the other European countries, the death rate is somewhat increased here as a consequence. Whilst there appears to be an agenda by the media to associate the vulnerability of the BAME groups to C-19 on poverty and institutional racism, that simply cannot apply to the surgeons and other medical staff that have succumbed whom cannot be considered to fall into any poverty group. I would very much expect that with a completely objective and scientific examination, that there are several possible genetic differences within the BAME groups which act as co-morbid conditions: Vitamin -D deficiency affecting immunity, as a consequence of living in the UK, may well play a significant part.

 

[exdos]

Unfortunately, I tend to think those who have suffered loss may not agree and a degree of sensitivity should be applied.

I have great sympathy for each and every victim and their families and friends. But is this a subject that we cannot discuss objectively?

 

[enuff_zed]

Whilst a difficult situation to Govern if I'm not mistaken we have the second highest death rates in the world.

On the face of it yes, but it is so difficult to know which countries are counting what.
Some are recording it as a Covid death if the person had it at the time, even if it may not have caused their demise. I guess that's an easy one for the docs to sign off?
Others are much more accurate and only recording those where they can prove it was the virus that did for them.
I read the other day that the Italians suspect there are nearly 12000 they've not recorded as such, and the French reckoned around 10000 of theirs too.

So regardless of how the figures are manipulated, I think it would be less than accurate just to go by the figures produced in each country.

I would guess the only vaguely accurate way would be to look back at the end of the year, look at the amount of deaths that would have been expected in that year normally, then look at the delta.

 

[mr.tourette]

Exdos , the first to actually out the notion on here that through the backdoor a herd immunity policy is being introduced.
For the government their objective has to be make the right noises that saving lives is prime whatever the financial implications yet at same time they must know that going forward the only real & feasible route is for us all to accept its here, accept what goes with that & "hopefully" enough of the at risk stay out of trouble for long enough to see a vaccine.

Personally, I think our government, directed by its advisers, has done very well in extremely difficult circumstances and should be applauded rather than criticised.

I have to agree totally , a virtually impossible situation to navigate & each & every nation have applied what they think are the correct measures.
I don't think you can say one one of them is wholly 100% correct.

Pretty sure South Korea with 60 million tightly packed in citizens with only around 250 deaths got it very much correct

 

[z4pilot]

Perhaps not but some have been more correct than others and I don't think the UK will ever be held up as an example of a country that got anywhere near. No doubt those better informed than us will ultimately be the judge of that.

I am very uncomfortable about regarding our lack of preparedness, delayed initial response and whats happened in care homes as anything other than poor decision making

I'm not sure you can say whether we have made poor decisions or not at this stage with the evidence we currently have. Every country started off with a different set of circumstances and variables.

If you hold Germany up as a exemplar, then presumably that would be because of it's testing regimes - but we simply didn't have the physical infrastructure to test at comparable volumes. As to why - who knows. It won't simply be cost or financial constraint - no country would have unused labs sat around waiting for a once in a 100 year pandemic, and the Public Health testing facilities we had pre-Covid, managed the testing requirements adequately. Perhaps Germany had more labs because they are historically a more federated nation with stronger individual States, leading to a duplication of facilities, whereas we are more centralised? Perhaps we prioritised quality of labs over quantity?

If you point to New Zealand as an exemplar, then surely you have to take into account population density and distribution - a more dispersed, smaller population means the virus can't move as quickly between centres of population (ie cities) and therefore lockdown is effective faster.

This will be pored over by researchers and scientists for years to come and lessons will be learned - but I don't think you can say we got it wrong per se - we are managing with the hand we've been dealt.

If you look at the distribution of our cases, they are much more evenly spread across the nation than say in Italy or Spain and as such, I think we are better placed to leverage herd inmmunity as a strategy, assuming the spread can be managed whilst avoiding overloading the health service and enabling the economy to get back up off its arse. I wouldn't have an issue with that as a strategy at all.

 

[Vornwend]

If you point to New Zealand as an exemplar, then surely you have to take into account population density and distribution - a more dispersed, smaller population means the virus can't move as quickly between centres of population (ie cities) and therefore lockdown is effective faster.

I do point to them as an exemplar. A higher % of the NZ population lives in an urban setting than the UK (87% v 83%). One third of the entire population live in Auckland so its nowhere near as dispersed as you might think. Death rate per million is 100 times better than the UK.

Yes I do agree it will be years before the final assessments are in but I think there are some early lessons to be learnt already.

Not sure on testing hence why I didn't include it in the list of more obvious failures but included it in what might be seen as the more successful areas. I have heard (admittedly second hand) that NHS labs had more capacity but have struggled to get kits and reagents because of competition with private sector labs being set up - I can't say whether that's true or not or what its impact is. My only experience of Germany was through involvement in blood testing where they are world leaders - they have leveraged automation way more than the UK and I wonder if that may also be a factor? Machines being capable of working 24/7 at the drop of a hat and at a faster rate? Either way I put testing capacity into the category of things which would have been nice to have with more hindsight. I read that the majority of the first German cases were in the younger population (returning skiers?) which may also have been an advantage?

 

[exdos]

Pretty sure South Korea with 60 million tightly packed in citizens with only around 250 deaths got it very much correct

See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-contain-new-outbreak-amid-anti-lgbt-backlash

You are NOT comparing another country with the Liberal UK and where our police don't carry weapons to enforce any laws, regulations, rules and guidelines.

 

[z4pilot]

If you point to New Zealand as an exemplar, then surely you have to take into account population density and distribution - a more dispersed, smaller population means the virus can't move as quickly between centres of population (ie cities) and therefore lockdown is effective faster.

I do point to them as an exemplar. A higher % of the NZ population lives in an urban setting than the UK (87% v 83%). One third of the entire population live in Auckland so its nowhere near as dispersed as you might think. Death rate per million is 100 times better than the UK.

I think the point I was trying to make was, in the case of New Zealand, you have populated cities with not much else in between in terms of population density - therefore logically, could the transmission rate be expected to be slower resulting in localised hotspots that would perhaps be easier to isolate and lockdown? In the UK, our population is much more densely packed with few obvious firebreaks in the distribution of potential transmitters. All supposition, but I was trying to say you can't assume we've done worse than anywhere else because there are too many variables involved. Death rates are an indicator, but not an absolute measure - I'd probably assume that New Zealand has a much younger overall demographic than the UK, so perhaps that has an impact on death rate?

 

[Vornwend]

I think the point I was trying to make was, in the case of New Zealand, you have populated cities with not much else in between in terms of population density - therefore logically, could the transmission rate be expected to be slower resulting in localised hotspots that would perhaps be easier to isolate and lockdown? In the UK, our population is much more densely packed with few obvious firebreaks in the distribution of potential transmitters. All supposition, but I was trying to say you can't assume we've done worse than anywhere else because there are too many variables involved. Death rates are an indicator, but not an absolute measure - I'd probably assume that New Zealand has a much younger overall demographic than the UK, so perhaps that has an impact on death rate?

I think the median age in NZ is 37 and UK 40 and it has a higher % over 65 (22% v 18%) , so pretty similar but yes I do see what you are saying and I agree there are lots of variables . It does strike me as significant though when one well developed country is 100 times better than another in a worldwide condition. That suggests some really significant factors otherwise you would have to assume dozens of smaller ones pretty much all in favour of the better performing country? Age seems to be the most significant factor quoted in research, followed by population density and underlying health condition but of course there will be many others.

Slightly tongue in cheek I'd argue that the most significant factor is the propensity of a government to take risks with its citizens :|

 

[z4pilot]

Slightly tongue in cheek I'd argue that the most significant factor is the propensity of a government to take risks with its citizens :|

I think we should all grab the popcorn, sit back and wait for Brazil's numbers to come rolling in....

 

[exdos]

Age seems to be the most significant factor quoted in research, followed by population density and underlying health condition but of course there will be many others.

If we are permitted to have a proper, open and objective analysis rather than a politically-correct and "sanitised' restrictive analysis, to properly understand the C-19 pandemic, then every possible factor must be looked at including cultural and religious effects as well as genetic differences amongst us all.

Slightly tongue in cheek I'd argue that the most significant factor is the propensity of a government to take risks with its citizens :|

And I would argue that if we didn't live in such a politically-correct country our government wouldn't have to tread on eggshells all the time for fear of being accused of one form of "ism" or another.

 

[mr.tourette]

Pretty sure South Korea with 60 million tightly packed in citizens with only around 250 deaths got it very much correct

See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-contain-new-outbreak-amid-anti-lgbt-backlash

You are NOT comparing another country with the Liberal UK and where our police don't carry weapons to enforce any laws, regulations, rules and guidelines.

Pretty sure South Korea with 60 million tightly packed in citizens with only around 250 deaths got it very much correct

See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-contain-new-outbreak-amid-anti-lgbt-backlash

You are NOT comparing another country with the Liberal UK and where our police don't carry weapons to enforce any laws, regulations, rules and guidelines.

Not sure what you're saying has to do with the fact I said they had managed the virus well? However they tackled it surely there was something to learn there?

 

[exdos]

Not sure what you're saying has to do with the fact I said they had managed the virus well? However they tackled it surely there was something to learn there?

Yes they did, but there's absolutely no way that the UK could approach handling the epidemic in the same way as in South Korea for host of different reasons, many of which are a result of us having such a Libertarian society.

For example, in the report of how South Korea handled C-19, found here: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fe...navirus-without-a-lockdown-a-model-to-follow- it states:
"Using technology developed during the MERS outbreak, authorities were able to track cases using credit card records, GPS and security camera footage to find who those individuals came into contact with and ensure they were tested too."
That approach is simply a non-starter here in the UK.

 

[mr.tourette]

Not sure what you're saying has to do with the fact I said they had managed the virus well? However they tackled it surely there was something to learn there?

Yes they did, but there's absolutely no way that the UK could approach handling the epidemic in the same way as in South Korea for host of different reasons, many of which are a result of us having such a Libertarian society.

For example, in the report of how South Korea handled C-19, found here: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fe...navirus-without-a-lockdown-a-model-to-follow- it states:
"Using technology developed during the MERS outbreak, authorities were able to track cases using credit card records, GPS and security camera footage to find who those individuals came into contact with and ensure they were tested too."
That approach is simply a non-starter here in the UK.

Non starter? Why? You're right though, our government are way to inept to try something radical

You may find the majority of citizens would support some invasion of privacy if it saved lives?

Libertarianism has a very broad range of definition but whilst we have our freedoms there is very little of our lives that are not tracked one way or the other we have more security cameras per square mile than any country in the world, every card tranasaction , every web page you visit, is logged, our phones are pinpointed with pings every minute of the day so I'm afraid Libertarian UK doesn't wash for me. Its more a nanny state run by Dads Army

 

[ronk]

Big brother is watching our every move - car movements / phone locations / what we buy / what we eat / where we holiday / how much we earn / how much cash in the bank / medical records / who we Talk to - the list goes on and on all the way to how old when we die and from what from.

If you’re honest and that data is secure then I don’t have a problem

 

[exdos]

Non starter? Why? You're right though, our government are way to inept to try something radical

You may find the majority of citizens would support some invasion of privacy if it saved lives?

Libertarianism has a very broad range of definition but whilst we have our freedoms there is very little of our lives that are not tracked one way or the other we have more security cameras per square mile than any country in the world, every card tranasaction , every web page you visit, is logged, our phones are pinpointed with pings every minute of the day so I'm afraid Libertarian UK doesn't wash for me. Its more a nanny state run by Dads Army

I don't disagree with much of what you say but I don't think more than 50% of the public would support invasion of privacy to save lives, especially of the old.

This is what any UK government is up against: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...-withering-critique-Governments-lockdown.html
Then you've got one of our "saviours" against climate change supporting him. Who would've thunk it?: https://www.legalcheek.com/2020/05/...-warning-that-lockdown-breaches-human-rights/

The government is in a no-win situation at every turn and whilst pragmatism might be called for to win through at times, there will always be some level off dissent and protest which prevents better outcomes from happening. That's the price we pay for the way of life we have in the UK. Show me a better way of living that already exists in a "Shangri-La" country.

 

[mr wilks]

Well 4 weeks have flown by since starting this thread , with government permission i can see friends & relatives in small groups from tomorrow :roll: ( also from tomorrow the 2 million "shielding" are allowed out into the fresh air :roll: some of those interviewed this morning on BBC seemed genuinely petrified of leaving the 4 walls that they have been staring at for the last 10 weeks the ongoing ramifications of this will no doubt surface over the coming months / year
Clearly those who feel threatened or vulnerable to CV19 should do what they feel necessary to preserve themselves leaving those that don't to crack on with life in as normal a way as possible .
Since returning to work 7 weeks ago i've met a good number of people from varying walks of life & age groups in the last 4-5 weeks ( including some officially classed as vulnerable ) obviously the topic is foremost in idle chitchat & to date have not spoken to anyone who thinks the lockdown was a good move or even necessary for the majority & the longer the government charade goes on the more people seem to be against the policies & how they were executed .
Interesting article here for those like myself who think the panic button should have been left well alone & instead the high risk individuals should have been kept isolated suggesting no matter which route was taken the numbers would have followed the same trajectory :wink:
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

 

[ronk]

I hope you are correct in your assessment and there’s no spike in numbers.
If the Govt hadn’t pressed the button the models and Govt advisor seemed to show hospitals would have been swamped. Was that that incorrect / propaganda - I ask that as a question and not in any controversial manner.

I note that Jonathan Van-Tam only today is expressing a cautionary approach - he’s no duck egg!

Who do we trust?

 

[mr wilks]

I hope you are correct in your assessment and there’s no spike in numbers.
If the Govt hadn’t pressed the button the models and Govt advisor seemed to show hospitals would have been swamped. Was that that incorrect / propaganda - I ask that as a question and not in any controversial manner.

I think there has ( & still is) been a element of learning on the job going on not just in the UK but across the world , a second / third spike may well occur but common sense would suggest they would be less significant in numbers to the point they become acceptable as with any other strain of flu which as we know is as capable of killing as CV19 is .
The setting up of the temp hospitals was a good one in my book , far better to have that extra capacity & not need than need & not have .
Right now its hard to ignore the element that the government is treating us like fools & muppets with the ridiculous rules that we can go to work with strangers but technically not see our sons, daughters , brothers , sisters , friends etc & the creation of the furlough scheme is now looking like a noose around the governments neck as they desperately cook up ideas how to extract themselves from it without throwing 2-3 million onto the welfare state