CV-19 day 44 / light at the end ?
- Thread starter mr wilks
- Start date
We are Nana & Grandpop and would love to see our granddaughters - we’ve kept our heads down and obeyed the rules to protect ourselves and others, now the buffoon is sending one of our grandchildren back into school!
I fear that this relaxation will knock us back to sq1
The relaxation seems to be having a negative effect in Germany our friends tell us.
I fear that this relaxation will knock us back to sq1
The relaxation seems to be having a negative effect in Germany our friends tell us.
Attleborough, Norfolk
I'm glad he's made it easy for me. Got no kids here and can easily work from home.
Apart from a Z run it's 'as you were' for me.
And given that the Covidiots will be out in force now, I intend to carry on exactly the same until they've all got over their excitement and gone back home.
Apart from a Z run it's 'as you were' for me.
And given that the Covidiots will be out in force now, I intend to carry on exactly the same until they've all got over their excitement and gone back home.
The government is clearly not putting all our eggs in a vaccine basket and is obviously attempting some level of "herd immunity".
The graph below is from Source: ONS, Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 3 April 2020 / ONS, Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: 2015-2019
As the graph shows, the risk of death to anyone under 45 is very low, and those people know it. By their increasing willingness to ignore the "Stay Home" rule in ever increasing numbers, there is an obvious "stand-off" between government and a section of the population: this could lead to civil unrest if the government now attempted to force people back indoors. Unlike many other countries, our government and police forces do their job by consent and not dictatorially, therefore our Lockdown has only ever been voluntary on behalf of the public.
In view of all the information that has been given on TV etc. by now, all adults should know which of the age categories in which they lie and the risk of death to themselves as per the graph. Therefore, if from now on you see that some level of relaxation is appropriate to your level of risk, then that is going to be your own choice.
For those of us whom lie in the higher risk age groups, it seems sensible to voluntarily persist with Lockdown, whilst the younger generations build herd immunity amongst themselves which will ultimately protect us "oldies". It should now be easier to find a slot for home deliveries from supermarkets once more people venture out. Likewise, the government needs the workforce to return to pay our State Pensions.
It all seems sensible to me because I don't need to be told to look after myself: I've been doing it all my life!
The graph below is from Source: ONS, Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 3 April 2020 / ONS, Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: 2015-2019
As the graph shows, the risk of death to anyone under 45 is very low, and those people know it. By their increasing willingness to ignore the "Stay Home" rule in ever increasing numbers, there is an obvious "stand-off" between government and a section of the population: this could lead to civil unrest if the government now attempted to force people back indoors. Unlike many other countries, our government and police forces do their job by consent and not dictatorially, therefore our Lockdown has only ever been voluntary on behalf of the public.
In view of all the information that has been given on TV etc. by now, all adults should know which of the age categories in which they lie and the risk of death to themselves as per the graph. Therefore, if from now on you see that some level of relaxation is appropriate to your level of risk, then that is going to be your own choice.
For those of us whom lie in the higher risk age groups, it seems sensible to voluntarily persist with Lockdown, whilst the younger generations build herd immunity amongst themselves which will ultimately protect us "oldies". It should now be easier to find a slot for home deliveries from supermarkets once more people venture out. Likewise, the government needs the workforce to return to pay our State Pensions.
It all seems sensible to me because I don't need to be told to look after myself: I've been doing it all my life!
Attachments
Another shambolic communication from our leaders. Either the government do not understand their message or they are making it up as they go. Even Raab on the radio just now doesn't understand it so how can we be expected to?
Conceived on Thursday
Briefed on Friday
Recorded on Saturday
Broadcast on Sunday
Confused on Monday
Chaotic on Tuesday
"Clarified" on Wednesday
Back to work today was the PM's message but Raab now saying Wednesday
Back to work before advice to employers or public transport issued. No advice if your employer says come to work but you don't feel safe or are shielding a vulnerable family member
No mention from the PM of when you could see family members - this from a man with at least half a dozen kids
Wales, Scotland and NI now out of step - Raab unable to answer what happens if you live in Wales and work in England
Can now meet more than one person from different households according to Raab if its outdoors (in a park, not in your garden) and 2m apart?
Can meet both parents if more than 2m apart says Raab, PM said one person
You can drive to other places - no guidance on distance or purpose
So much wriggle room that the government will blame the public if it goes wrong. Testing not at required levels, tracing app not rolled out yet.
Why, having got this far, couldn't we wait another 3 weeks? Get the infections right down, get clear advice ready, secure higher levels of testing and tracing.
If you think the government’s messaging on the virus is clear and you find yourself arguing with someone who doesn’t find it clear you have, by definition, already lost that argument :roll: FWIW my advice is stay alert for more sudden change in the guidelines and stay at home!
Conceived on Thursday
Briefed on Friday
Recorded on Saturday
Broadcast on Sunday
Confused on Monday
Chaotic on Tuesday
"Clarified" on Wednesday
Back to work today was the PM's message but Raab now saying Wednesday
Back to work before advice to employers or public transport issued. No advice if your employer says come to work but you don't feel safe or are shielding a vulnerable family member
No mention from the PM of when you could see family members - this from a man with at least half a dozen kids
Wales, Scotland and NI now out of step - Raab unable to answer what happens if you live in Wales and work in England
Can now meet more than one person from different households according to Raab if its outdoors (in a park, not in your garden) and 2m apart?
Can meet both parents if more than 2m apart says Raab, PM said one person
You can drive to other places - no guidance on distance or purpose
So much wriggle room that the government will blame the public if it goes wrong. Testing not at required levels, tracing app not rolled out yet.
Why, having got this far, couldn't we wait another 3 weeks? Get the infections right down, get clear advice ready, secure higher levels of testing and tracing.
If you think the government’s messaging on the virus is clear and you find yourself arguing with someone who doesn’t find it clear you have, by definition, already lost that argument :roll: FWIW my advice is stay alert for more sudden change in the guidelines and stay at home!
I do wonder, in years gone by, without all this instant social media and online reporting, whether the public would have been happier to just toe the line and wait and see. Now though, we are bombarded with the thoughts of every man and his dog, sensationalised by the media, and the pressure on the government builds by the hour. Eventually they are forced to be seen to act, just to keep a lid on it all.
I think, without the pressure, there would have been another three weeks before anything else was decided.
Its a bit like a frustrated parent with a 2-y-o who won't shut up. Eventually they just say anything that they think will give them 5 minutes peace.
Overall though, it's a simple concept. "If you lot out there do as you're told then this is what we could do, all being well. If you don't, you're f***ed!"
I think, without the pressure, there would have been another three weeks before anything else was decided.
Its a bit like a frustrated parent with a 2-y-o who won't shut up. Eventually they just say anything that they think will give them 5 minutes peace.
Overall though, it's a simple concept. "If you lot out there do as you're told then this is what we could do, all being well. If you don't, you're f***ed!"
Vornwend said:
If we got infections right down in the under 45year-olds, we wouldn't be able to attempt any level of "herd immunity" and then we'd be right back to square one.
Vornwend said:
For my age group and those in other high(er) risk groups I totally agree. I'm staying in lockdown whilst the younger folk get back to work and build herd immunity to protect me whilst I wait for the vaccine.
ronk said:
And you don’t think there should be any financial consideration? As far as relaxing the lockdown is concerned he isn’t forcing you to go out. I’m a few years older than you and will be taking advantage of the new rules to take the Z out for a run. I see little difference in self isolating in my car to self isolating sat at home. I will stick with the social distancing rules but thank God he is allowing us to make the choice and not the nanny state.
exdos said:
You might very well be correct about this but the level of risk associated with this strategy could be quite high. I have a few nagging doubts:
Are we sure exposure will grant lasting immunity?
Are we confident the virus won't mutate into something even worse?
Without better testing and tracing regimes can we really contain new outbreaks?
Does the lack of clarity undermine the confidence we have in the messages and will that result in a slower economic bounce back?
Right back at the start I felt like we were unwilling participants in a huge experiment and I'm starting to feel like that again :|
I am very sure the government is not deliberately trying to mess this up but I do question where their priorities lie and the lack of transparency about the trade offs being made. For example - if we were told that Income tax had to go up by a penny to fund another month of lock down what help achieve consensus? I actually think we will need to see 2 or 3p on the rate for several years anyway.
Vornwend said:
I think that over the past 60 years, we've forgotten that life is a risky business which all of our ancestors had to endure. Until relatively recently very few people lived the end of their days in care homes. Three of my grandparents had died before I was born and didn't see their 60th birthday. With that in mind, I consider myself to be lucky to be my present age no matter what the future has in store for me.
No, but some level of temporary immunity would be better than having no vaccine.Vornwend said:
As I understand, well over 3,500 different mutations have already been identified, so that is possible, with the implication that finding an effective vaccine might also be very difficult.Vornwend said:
Vornwend said:
I would expect that we are now in a much better position on that front than we were before, to focus on any new "hot spots" which may occur with the possibility of determining which mutational strain(s) of the virus are the most virulent/lethal.
You're right, and absolutely no country or government has the right answer because we are in the midst of the unknown. People need to accept that mistakes will be made in order to find the best way forward. A permanent Lockdown for all is simply not possible as a long-term strategy. To extricate ourselves there must be a "suck it and see" element of attempting a return to "normality" and we can always reinstate lockdown in light of finding further threats/problems if only a proportion of our population (the least at risk groups) are our there doing the "sucking".Vornwend said:
How did the pioneers ever reach California without voluntarily taking life-threatening risks?
Rest assured, taxes will have to be increased to pay for all of this. That's a "given".
Exdos , the first to actually out the notion on here that through the backdoor a herd immunity policy is being introduced.
For the government their objective has to be make the right noises that saving lives is prime whatever the financial implications yet at same time they must know that going forward the only real & feasible route is for us all to accept its here, accept what goes with that & "hopefully" enough of the at risk stay out of trouble for long enough to see a vaccine.
As returning waves of the virus wash back & forth each should have less & less impact as it will have already hit the most vulnerable therefore over a 3-6-12 month term whilst infection rates might not drop off to zero you would expect death rates to improve.
All we have had for the past 8 weeks is grim news & lots of it but reality is for the 60million+ people living in UK dying from Cv-19 is extremely unlikely yet they have somehow brainwashed virtually everyone into thinking catching it is inevitable if you venture out.
I wouldnt be rushing onto any buses, planes or trains anytime soon & avoiding crowds is a obvious one but otherwise I see no reason why you can't apply some common sense & crack on with life as best you can. .
For the government their objective has to be make the right noises that saving lives is prime whatever the financial implications yet at same time they must know that going forward the only real & feasible route is for us all to accept its here, accept what goes with that & "hopefully" enough of the at risk stay out of trouble for long enough to see a vaccine.
As returning waves of the virus wash back & forth each should have less & less impact as it will have already hit the most vulnerable therefore over a 3-6-12 month term whilst infection rates might not drop off to zero you would expect death rates to improve.
All we have had for the past 8 weeks is grim news & lots of it but reality is for the 60million+ people living in UK dying from Cv-19 is extremely unlikely yet they have somehow brainwashed virtually everyone into thinking catching it is inevitable if you venture out.
I wouldnt be rushing onto any buses, planes or trains anytime soon & avoiding crowds is a obvious one but otherwise I see no reason why you can't apply some common sense & crack on with life as best you can. .
mr wilks said:
You're right.
When the death rate of C-19 is considered in an objective and unemotional way, it is relatively low, but for those whom get a "bad dose" their hospitalisation requirements are huge, in terms of numbers of staff required to attend to each patient, amount of PPE required and amount of specialist ICU equipment etc. *PLUS* their stay in ICU is over several weeks, therefore the slow throughput in ICU creates a "log jam" which could create a situation where the medics have to choose which patients are allowed into ICU and those which aren't (i.e. consigned to die). The government issued The Covid-19 Decision Support Tool. which specified which patients (by age and condition) should have priority for treatment. As a consequence of the Lockdown and the voluntary co-operation of the overwhelming majority of the public, the NHS has been able to cope and there has always been spare capacity in ICU in our hospitals. In the meantime, C-19 has smouldered away slowly creating herd immunity amongst millions of people whom mostly have either suffered asymptomatically or with mild symptoms.
Personally, I think our government, directed by its advisers, has done very well in extremely difficult circumstances and should be applauded rather than criticised.
exdos said:
Done very well? Applauded? I'm genuinely surprised to hear you say that
mr wilks said:
Perhaps not but some have been more correct than others and I don't think the UK will ever be held up as an example of a country that got anywhere near. No doubt those better informed than us will ultimately be the judge of that.
I do think they have done moderately well during the lock down ( financial support measures, ramping up testing and increasing ICU capacity in particular) but the entry into it and emerging exit have been very poor in my opinion. I am very uncomfortable about regarding our lack of preparedness, delayed initial response and whats happened in care homes as anything other than poor decision making