Chief medical officer

[Ewazix]

A family member died of an unidentified Haemorrhagic fever from W. Africa years ago but some time before Ebola was classified in 1976, hence my interest and reason for reading Richard Preston's original 1994 true-life book 'Hot Zone'. It gives horrifying and detailed account of the virus and it's development (Stephen King said it was the scariest thing he had ever read!). All sizeable outbreaks have been spread by people handling the dead, and unfortunately by healthcare workers.

If someone infected with Ebola is haemorrhaging blood and coughing or spewing it around the place you are in dire straights, If not the risk is probably low. If (or when) Ebola mutates in to a true airborne virus like Influenza then we do have a problem Houston and there was some limited evidence that this was possible years ago. Personally I think a quarantine for health workers would be sensible.

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16213.The_Hot_Zone

 

[nfbr]

I don't know much on the subject, but what I have learned is that humans should leave monkeys alone!

HIV came from monkies - in Africa
Ebola comes from monkies - also in Africa.

Africa - stop doing stuff you shouldn't do with monkies!

 

[sars]

Ever considered this is all media-driven hysteria? I'd be prepared to hazard a guess many more people die from malaria.

From the WHO

" There were an estimated 207 million cases of malaria in 2012 (uncertainty range: 135 – 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (uncertainty range: 473 000 – 789 000). 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa.

In 2012, malaria killed an estimated 482 000 children under five years of age. That is 1300 children every day, or one child almost every minute"

Puts ebola into perspective

 

[ronk]

The malaria model is why the authorities are trying to keep the Ebola outbreak controlled.

But my original post was re the qoute of the chief medical officer!

 

[Carol M]

They think this outbreak of Ebola came from children playing in a hollow tree where bats where roosting. A 2 year old boy contracted it and was the first to die.

Apart from anything else, I told you those evil little feckers needed wiping out. (Bats, not kids. But thinking about it....... )

Has anyone read Stephen King's 'The Stand'?

I still think quarantine people returning from working with ebola.

 

[PerryGunn]

Ever considered this is all media-driven hysteria? I'd be prepared to hazard a guess many more people die from malaria.

From the WHO

" There were an estimated 207 million cases of malaria in 2012 (uncertainty range: 135 – 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (uncertainty range: 473 000 – 789 000). 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa.

In 2012, malaria killed an estimated 482 000 children under five years of age. That is 1300 children every day, or one child almost every minute"

Puts ebola into perspective

It's not the overall number of cases but the mortality rate of ebola that's worrying! If you take the WHO estimated figures for cases and deaths, this gives a mortality rate from malaria of 0.3% - the current ebola outbreak has an estimated mortality rate of 70% (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29327741)

What's worrying the epidemiologists is that, as ebola infects more people, there is a greater likelyhood that it will mutate into forms that are more transmissible between humans. If this happens it could make the deaths from malaria look 'insignificant' even if the overall number of cases is orders of magnitude lower - at 70% mortality it would only take a million cases to outstrip the number of malaria deaths and the ebola deaths would likely be concentrated in high-population density areas which would overwhelm support services.

Airborne transmission is the worst case scenario and could, effectively, make the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 look tame - and that killed around 4% of the world's population.

 

[sars]

This is one of the problems of reporting news today, I'm no Dr so have no clue wether it is or is not possible for a virus that changes from one that is contagious by the transmission of bodily fluids to one that is contagious by air, but regardless news reporters know that it scares the living sh!t out of everyone and thus sells stories.

At the moment it is transmitted by bodily fluids, stating that there is a fear that it may go airborne, after all there is the same chance as HIV becoming airborne and we haven't been running around like headless chicken with that fear for the past 20 years, is just scare mongering.

Malaria remains the biggest killer on the planet let's put ebola into a similar perspective as HIV

 

[Jasey]

This is one of the problems of reporting news today, I'm no Dr so have no clue wether it is or is not possible for a virus that changes from one that is contagious by the transmission of bodily fluids to one that is contagious by air, but regardless news reporters know that it scares the living sh!t out of everyone and thus sells stories.

At the moment it is transmitted by bodily fluids, stating that there is a fear that it may go airborne, after all there is the same chance as HIV becoming airborne and we haven't been running around like headless chicken with that fear for the past 20 years, is just scare mongering.

Malaria remains the biggest killer on the planet let's put ebola into a similar perspective as HIV

I'm pretty sure the aid workers who have caught Ebola weren't shagging carriers - the current method of transmission is scary enough.

 

[pvr]

Fluid = sneeze for example?

 

[ronk]

Aid workers wear ppe and are washed down after contact, yet still the lady caught it.
That's why I can't understand the comments from the cmo.

I'm sure attitudes will change if there is a breakout of the disease other than west Africa.
Remember there is medication to prevent malaria and we all know how to avoid aids !

 

[sars]

my point was that both viruses are transmitted by bodily fluids, to think that HIV is spread just through sexual intercourse is a tad naive, but the relatively quick period between being infected, becoming contagious and the actual symptoms of ebola mean that it is just more efficient at being transferred from host to host.

 

[Jasey]

my point was that both viruses are transmitted by bodily fluids, to think that HIV is spread just through sexual intercourse is a tad naive, but the relatively quick period between being infected, becoming contagious and the actual symptoms of ebola mean that it is just more efficient at being transferred from host to host.

The amount of times I've seen blood stains in NHS hospitals is enough for me know we'd be fcuked if ebola was to get in here - Complacency kills - and the woman and her "it's very hard to catch" bullshit should not be in charge of anything to do with containing ebola.

 

[Ewazix]

my point was that both viruses are transmitted by bodily fluids, to think that HIV is spread just through sexual intercourse is a tad naive, but the relatively quick period between being infected, becoming contagious and the actual symptoms of ebola mean that it is just more efficient at being transferred from host to host.

I think you are right and it's complex, HIV is far more likely to be transmitted through populations because the carrier may be unaware but is infectious for a long time, possibly years. Ebola develops in only 2 - 21 days and the victim is only really capable of passing on Ebola once they are very obviously sick, i.e. collapsing and haemorrhaging. The two factors holding back the spread of Ebola (in developed countries) are the fast and high mortality rate which kills before it's spread far and it's limited ability to get airborne.

Unless Ebola goes airborne it's not a mass threat to humans living in sanitary conditions with effective means of isolating the sick and dealing with the dead, unfortunately the poor sods in West Africa going down with this aren't in the same situation and happen to be the same people worst affected by Malaria

 

[ronk]

I thought HIV was a needles and nookie transmitted disease?
I don't think medics wear the nbc suits to deal with patients or the deceased.

 

[Jasey]

I thought HIV was a needles and nookie transmitted disease?
I don't think medics wear the nbc suits to deal with patients or the deceased.

+ direct contact with open wounds
+ Breast feeding - but that shouldn't affect too many adults

 

[sars]

I thought HIV was a needles and nookie transmitted disease?
I don't think medics wear the nbc suits to deal with patients or the deceased.

+ direct contact with open wounds
+ Breast feeding - but that shouldn't affect too many adults

again you are missing the point, they are both contagious by bodily fluids not by airborne contagion, as I said originally it is as likely/unlikely that ebola will become airborne than it is for HIV becoming airborne yet we are not paranoid of this happening

 

[ronk]

Exactly, (Jasey) so sitting next to an hiv infected person in an confined space ie. aircraft isn't very likely to cause a problem.
Someone who has been in contact (touch / cough / bodily output) with an Ebola patient probabably is.

Hence I feel the cmo made a rather crass comment!

 

[slick]

One day nature will cleanse the planet useing a virus to start the process , whos to say this isnt it ?

 

[sp3ctre]

Anyone coming back from Africa's getting a wide berth from me

 

[Ewazix]

Anyone coming back from Africa's getting a wide berth from me

Not sure if you know the veracity of that map but it's not accurate. 'Ebola' is named after the Ebola river area where it was first identified 2000km away in the Congo. The Marburg virus which is a related to Ebola and does the same job, popped up in outbreaks since the 60's in Kenya, S Africa Russia and Marburg in Germany where it was named. A nasty outbreak of Ebola (Reston strain) did go airborne in a monkey holding facility in Reston Virginia in 1989. That was contained but staff were infected and developed antibodies, but for reasons unknown did not develop the full disease. Hence the medical officer's words are strictly speaking accurate but time will tell if full Ebola will go airborne.