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AlienZed
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Post by AlienZed » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:32 pm

Perhaps they let it loose on purpose to wreck the wests economy, knowing they had the antidote.
Couldnt get mi head around the pics on the news when the chinese premier visited the site with little or no protection except from the usual face mask .
Perhaps he had been given the antidote before the visit .,?????

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Post by ben g » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:07 pm

AlienZed wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:32 pm
Perhaps they let it loose on purpose to wreck the wests economy, knowing they had the antidote.
Couldnt get mi head around the pics on the news when the chinese premier visited the site with little or no protection except from the usual face mask .
Perhaps he had been given the antidote before the visit .,?????
Although I don't like the tin foil hat conspiracy theories, it would make perfect sense if it all came out that this was a ploy to crash the western worlds economy. It would not surprise me at all.

But I don't like to think that way. I just hope it was all innocent, right up until the part where China tried to cover it up for a while.
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Post by ronk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:49 pm

It’s getting better in China
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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:57 am

exdos wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:22 am
BMWZ4MC wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 pm
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
Richard, Ive added the recorded number of cases, in addition to, the recorded number of deaths for both Italy and the UK and produced the graph below from the published data. I'm not sure that I'm giving you the visual illustration that you are wanting to see, but by adding the reported number of cases as well as the numbers of deaths gives a most startling difference between the progress of the virus in the two countries.

On 15th February 2020, in the UK there were 9 reported cases of the virus but only 3 reported cases in Italy, therefore it could be suggested that at that time, the UK was ahead of Italy in the progress of the virus. However, by the time that UK reported the first death on 5th March, there were only 116 reported cases here. In comparison, Italy reported its first death on 21st February, and by 5th March, there were 3858 reported cases and 148 deaths.

My graph shows two different scales on the Y-axis: the one on the left is required for the plots of reported number of cases in Italy and UK, and the one on the right applies to the 2 plots for reported deaths in Italy and UK.

There is a fair bit of criticism directed at our government's management of "the crisis" where it is suggested that we should have gone into lockdown at the outset like S Korea and China, but as we've seen, getting some people to comply with government instructions is a futile exercise.

Likewise, we hear a lot of criticism of us not doing enough testing for the virus. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the reported deaths are THE only true measure of success, or otherwise, of the overall strategy to minimise the viral spread. Clearly, our testing method in the UK is keeping the death rate as low as possible.

I think this graph shows that the UK government, entirely guided by medical experts and behavioural psychologists etc., is very successfully managing Pandemic control by pursuing our own strategic measures, where the public are being persuaded, rather than ordered, to follow the necessary implemented measures at the right time for maximum effect. I think this graph demonstrates very clearly that our frontline workers in the NHS are doing an exceptional and successful job and are being very ably assisted by the experts whom are directing the government.


The source of the data used is found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/
Thanks John. It looks like both of the lines for the UK data are following the Italian data, just lagging behind.

The response to the virus has been poorly managed in most developed western cultures, including the UK. This gives some insight:

https://www.facebook.com/654170011/post ... 182835012/

As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e8 ... 503995cd6f

I’ve yet to see a credible exit strategy from the current circumstance proposed by any government. I perceive there to be three possibilities:

1 We isolate ourselves and those who are spared from infection remain immunologically naive. This carries a significant risk of a resurgence of cases when the state of lockdown is released and people start to commingle once more.

2 We isolate until a vaccine is created and herd immunity develops.

3 Sufficient numbers are infected (and either die or recover) for herd immunity to quell further transmission.

We’re following option one at present but I can’t see that leading to clearance from the population, rather a second wave of infection and then further crisis after we come out of lockdown.
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Post by enzed4 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:28 am

BMWZ4MC wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:57 am


As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e8 ... 503995cd6f
Thank you, that was well written by someone just retired from the 'frontline' in healthcare. Insightful, and very human, as he is experiencing first-hand the effects of a loved one (in an 'at risk' condition) contracting it. I hope things work out for him and his family.
Your 'option 1' exit strategy is grim reading :(
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Post by mr wilks » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:56 am

BMWZ4MC wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:57 am
exdos wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:22 am
BMWZ4MC wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 pm
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
Richard, Ive added the recorded number of cases, in addition to, the recorded number of deaths for both Italy and the UK and produced the graph below from the published data. I'm not sure that I'm giving you the visual illustration that you are wanting to see, but by adding the reported number of cases as well as the numbers of deaths gives a most startling difference between the progress of the virus in the two countries.

On 15th February 2020, in the UK there were 9 reported cases of the virus but only 3 reported cases in Italy, therefore it could be suggested that at that time, the UK was ahead of Italy in the progress of the virus. However, by the time that UK reported the first death on 5th March, there were only 116 reported cases here. In comparison, Italy reported its first death on 21st February, and by 5th March, there were 3858 reported cases and 148 deaths.

My graph shows two different scales on the Y-axis: the one on the left is required for the plots of reported number of cases in Italy and UK, and the one on the right applies to the 2 plots for reported deaths in Italy and UK.

There is a fair bit of criticism directed at our government's management of "the crisis" where it is suggested that we should have gone into lockdown at the outset like S Korea and China, but as we've seen, getting some people to comply with government instructions is a futile exercise.

Likewise, we hear a lot of criticism of us not doing enough testing for the virus. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the reported deaths are THE only true measure of success, or otherwise, of the overall strategy to minimise the viral spread. Clearly, our testing method in the UK is keeping the death rate as low as possible.

I think this graph shows that the UK government, entirely guided by medical experts and behavioural psychologists etc., is very successfully managing Pandemic control by pursuing our own strategic measures, where the public are being persuaded, rather than ordered, to follow the necessary implemented measures at the right time for maximum effect. I think this graph demonstrates very clearly that our frontline workers in the NHS are doing an exceptional and successful job and are being very ably assisted by the experts whom are directing the government.


The source of the data used is found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/
Thanks John. It looks like both of the lines for the UK data are following the Italian data, just lagging behind.

The response to the virus has been poorly managed in most developed western cultures, including the UK. This gives some insight:

https://www.facebook.com/654170011/post ... 182835012/

As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e8 ... 503995cd6f

I’ve yet to see a credible exit strategy from the current circumstance proposed by any government. I perceive there to be three possibilities:

1 We isolate ourselves and those who are spared from infection remain immunologically naive. This carries a significant risk of a resurgence of cases when the state of lockdown is released and people start to commingle once more.

2 We isolate until a vaccine is created and herd immunity develops.

3 Sufficient numbers are infected (and either die or recover) for herd immunity to quell further transmission.

We’re following option one at present but I can’t see that leading to clearance from the population, rather a second wave of infection and then further crisis after we come out of lockdown.
Option 4 possibly :roll: ok its from the DM but certainly makes for interesting reading https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ppled.html
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Post by Tinker15 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 am

Yes, but it’s by Peter Hitchens who studied philosophy and politics. His views on Coronavirus are no more valid than yours or mine. Apart from which he has a history of being contrary and no doubt it has earned him a decent living. It’s interesting that unlike most articles in the Mail no comments are allowed. I wonder why!
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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 am

Mr Wilks, I understand that he feels his liberty and human rights are being infringed. They are to some extent, but solely to maintain a far greater basic human right of many others - that is the right to life.
However, I’m not sure what’s he’s proposing as an alternative strategy? In Italy, the lack of early definitive action has resulted in a huge number of deaths and not only amongst those who “would have died this year anyway”. Furthermore, the consolidating pneumonia found in severe COVID-19 will leave a significant number of the survivors as respiratory cripples. 10% of those ventilated in Italy are healthcare professionals, hardly society’s old and infirm. Of those who survive, many will never recover to anything like normal.
Is the better strategy to bury our collective heads in the sand, praise our right to watch the football in the pub with our mates and try to keep the economy afloat whilst the NHS collapses and people dear to each of us become desperately ill and die?
I don’t favour his plan, but it will lead to a successful exit strategy once 80% of the population has been infected.
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Post by mr wilks » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:21 am

Tinker15 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 am
Yes, but it’s by Peter Hitchens who studied philosophy and politics. His views on Coronavirus are no more valid than yours or mine. Apart from which he has a history of being contrary and no doubt it has earned him a decent living. It’s interesting that unlike most articles in the Mail no comments are allowed. I wonder why!
Indeed but in a democratic world its just another opinion to consider , in reality the government were dammed if they did & dammed if they didn't so ultimately had to follow the lead set by other countries , my own thoughts are when this is over yes it will have been tragic for many families but not on the scale initially told we would see :? is that due to the measures or is that due to how it would have played out anyway :wink:
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Post by mr wilks » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:28 am

BMWZ4MC wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 am
Mr Wilks, I understand that he feels his liberty and human rights are being infringed. They are to some extent, but solely to maintain a far greater basic human right of many others - that is the right to life.
However, I’m not sure what’s he’s proposing as an alternative strategy? In Italy, the lack of early definitive action has resulted in a huge number of deaths and not only amongst those who “would have died this year anyway”. Furthermore, the consolidating pneumonia found in severe COVID-19 will leave a significant number of the survivors as respiratory cripples. 10% of those ventilated in Italy are healthcare professionals, hardly society’s old and infirm. Of those who survive, many will never recover to anything like normal.
Is the better strategy to bury our collective heads in the sand, praise our right to watch the football in the pub with our mates and try to keep the economy afloat whilst the NHS collapses and people dear to each of us become desperately ill and die?
I don’t favour his plan, but it will lead to a successful exit strategy once 80% of the population has been infected.
The number of deaths in Drs & nurses is alarming & must be worrying for anyone like yourself in that area of work :cry: it does seem common sense to isolate therefore reduce further spreading of the virus but unfortunately as we have seen way too many times around the world there is a level of idiocy that means the liberty of free movement has to be removed & enforced by law whether we like it or not .
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Post by Crazy Harry » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:31 am

mr wilks wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:21 am
Tinker15 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 am
Yes, but it’s by Peter Hitchens who studied philosophy and politics. His views on Coronavirus are no more valid than yours or mine. Apart from which he has a history of being contrary and no doubt it has earned him a decent living. It’s interesting that unlike most articles in the Mail no comments are allowed. I wonder why!
Indeed but in a democratic world its just another opinion to consider , in reality the government were dammed if they did & dammed if they didn't so ultimately had to follow the lead set by other countries , my own thoughts are when this is over yes it will have been tragic for many families but not on the scale initially told we would see :? is that due to the measures or is that due to how it would have played out anyway :wink:
Shame I won't be around for the 50 or 100 year rule to release government papers - I bet the discussions around this and Brexit are going to make very interesting reading!

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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:32 am

mr wilks wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:28 am
BMWZ4MC wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 am
Mr Wilks, I understand that he feels his liberty and human rights are being infringed. They are to some extent, but solely to maintain a far greater basic human right of many others - that is the right to life.
However, I’m not sure what’s he’s proposing as an alternative strategy? In Italy, the lack of early definitive action has resulted in a huge number of deaths and not only amongst those who “would have died this year anyway”. Furthermore, the consolidating pneumonia found in severe COVID-19 will leave a significant number of the survivors as respiratory cripples. 10% of those ventilated in Italy are healthcare professionals, hardly society’s old and infirm. Of those who survive, many will never recover to anything like normal.
Is the better strategy to bury our collective heads in the sand, praise our right to watch the football in the pub with our mates and try to keep the economy afloat whilst the NHS collapses and people dear to each of us become desperately ill and die?
I don’t favour his plan, but it will lead to a successful exit strategy once 80% of the population has been infected.
The number of deaths in Drs & nurses is alarming & must be worrying for anyone like yourself in that area of work :cry: it does seem common sense to isolate therefore reduce further spreading of the virus but unfortunately as we have seen way too many times around the world there is a level of idiocy that means the liberty of free movement has to be removed & enforced by law whether we like it or not .
Mr Hitchens would disagree with you and let those idiots contaminate one another liberally!
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Post by mr wilks » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:37 am

BMWZ4MC wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:32 am
mr wilks wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:28 am
BMWZ4MC wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 am
Mr Wilks, I understand that he feels his liberty and human rights are being infringed. They are to some extent, but solely to maintain a far greater basic human right of many others - that is the right to life.
However, I’m not sure what’s he’s proposing as an alternative strategy? In Italy, the lack of early definitive action has resulted in a huge number of deaths and not only amongst those who “would have died this year anyway”. Furthermore, the consolidating pneumonia found in severe COVID-19 will leave a significant number of the survivors as respiratory cripples. 10% of those ventilated in Italy are healthcare professionals, hardly society’s old and infirm. Of those who survive, many will never recover to anything like normal.
Is the better strategy to bury our collective heads in the sand, praise our right to watch the football in the pub with our mates and try to keep the economy afloat whilst the NHS collapses and people dear to each of us become desperately ill and die?
I don’t favour his plan, but it will lead to a successful exit strategy once 80% of the population has been infected.
The number of deaths in Drs & nurses is alarming & must be worrying for anyone like yourself in that area of work :cry: it does seem common sense to isolate therefore reduce further spreading of the virus but unfortunately as we have seen way too many times around the world there is a level of idiocy that means the liberty of free movement has to be removed & enforced by law whether we like it or not .
Mr Hitchens would disagree with you and let those idiots contaminate one another liberally!
& i would happily sit back & watch that happen , no finer way of seeing the population thin itself out :oops: however its the part where the idiots then expect assistance from others that the plan goes awry :P
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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:39 am

Not to mention the innocent bystanders they take with them...
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Post by Tinker15 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:40 am

mr wilks wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:21 am
Tinker15 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:14 am
Yes, but it’s by Peter Hitchens who studied philosophy and politics. His views on Coronavirus are no more valid than yours or mine. Apart from which he has a history of being contrary and no doubt it has earned him a decent living. It’s interesting that unlike most articles in the Mail no comments are allowed. I wonder why!
Indeed but in a democratic world its just another opinion to consider , in reality the government were dammed if they did & dammed if they didn't so ultimately had to follow the lead set by other countries , my own thoughts are when this is over yes it will have been tragic for many families but not on the scale initially told we would see :? is that due to the measures or is that due to how it would have played out anyway :wink:
Of course Hitchens is entitled to his opinions and I certainly wouldn’t deny him his right to have them. It doesn’t mean I have to agree with him. 🙂 Now who knows on the final numbers? I guess they were possibly hyped to persuade us that it was better to do as we were told and stay indoors. if the numbers are lower, as I expect they will be, will we ever know if it was the measures now being taken. I doubt it.
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