Virus worries

John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
FWIW, I’m not surprised to see the graphs for each country match so closely. A fair proportion of Australians seem to be deluding themselves that their country is somehow special and that they will escape the worst of covid. I’ve heard idiotic comments like “we have better air here” and “we’re all much fitter in Aus”. Few people have recognised that we are in the latent phase of the curve that precedes the take off...
 
Richard, Good to hear from you and hope you are well in Oz and keep well.

I'll do that for you tomorrow. Since compiling the 2 graphs above, I've also added Spain to my graphs and the mortality there is even greater than Italy and the other countries in those graphs. Horrific.

I've just seen on the news that Oxford University has devised a relatively simple but effective ventilator that can be made from readily available parts within the NHS: something which I've been advocating for a while to satisfy an urgent need in this crisis. If governments issued a set of simple plans to unify a design for such an emergency piece of kit, I'm sure that there are plenty folks capable of assembling the kit whilst they're in lockdown at home and without work. If it's a case of life and death, stick a Brook Airway in my throat with some bellows on the other end, rather than certain death whilst waiting for some fancy, certified, computer-controlled ventilator to be delivered in June.

Keep yourself safe. :thumbsup:
 
BMWZ4MC said:
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
FWIW, I’m not surprised to see the graphs for each country match so closely. A fair proportion of Australians seem to be deluding themselves that their country is somehow special and that they will escape the worst of covid. I’ve heard idiotic comments like “we have better air here” and “we’re all much fitter in Aus”. Few people have recognised that we are in the latent phase of the curve that precedes the take off...
Click to expand...
This is exactly what I'm seeing in some of the US youtube videos I subscribe to. I'm sitting in lockdown for the next 4 weeks (along with the entire country) while watching them travel to shops wearing gloves and no masks and joking about social distance, while their President says they should be right by Easter and the churches will be packed for it. I feel very afraid for the people of America. For some reason many states seem to think New York is an anomaly and it won't affect them the same way. Federal and State authorities don't seem to be able to agree any any course of action. It's just bizarre. :(
 
The main take away I got from videos of Italian survivors was their common belief that this can't happen to us it's just northern Italy or next town or next neighbor. And I think the Americans are in the same denial. There are a lot of colonies that just are not comprehending the severity of this disease. There are authorities that are not shutting down public gathering. There are people complaining about the inconvenience of distancing.
New York City is an epicenter because it has a high density population and they were slow to react. Doctors and nurses are dying along with the patients. It's very bad in NY and so people were leaving. And they let them go :?
 
BMWZ4MC said:
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
Click to expand...

Richard, Ive added the recorded number of cases, in addition to, the recorded number of deaths for both Italy and the UK and produced the graph below from the published data. I'm not sure that I'm giving you the visual illustration that you are wanting to see, but by adding the reported number of cases as well as the numbers of deaths gives a most startling difference between the progress of the virus in the two countries.

On 15th February 2020, in the UK there were 9 reported cases of the virus but only 3 reported cases in Italy, therefore it could be suggested that at that time, the UK was ahead of Italy in the progress of the virus. However, by the time that UK reported the first death on 5th March, there were only 116 reported cases here. In comparison, Italy reported its first death on 21st February, and by 5th March, there were 3858 reported cases and 148 deaths.

My graph shows two different scales on the Y-axis: the one on the left is required for the plots of reported number of cases in Italy and UK, and the one on the right applies to the 2 plots for reported deaths in Italy and UK.

There is a fair bit of criticism directed at our government's management of "the crisis" where it is suggested that we should have gone into lockdown at the outset like S Korea and China, but as we've seen, getting some people to comply with government instructions is a futile exercise.

Likewise, we hear a lot of criticism of us not doing enough testing for the virus. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the reported deaths are THE only true measure of success, or otherwise, of the overall strategy to minimise the viral spread. Clearly, our testing method in the UK is keeping the death rate as low as possible.

I think this graph shows that the UK government, entirely guided by medical experts and behavioural psychologists etc., is very successfully managing Pandemic control by pursuing our own strategic measures, where the public are being persuaded, rather than ordered, to follow the necessary implemented measures at the right time for maximum effect. I think this graph demonstrates very clearly that our frontline workers in the NHS are doing an exceptional and successful job and are being very ably assisted by the experts whom are directing the government.


The source of the data used is found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
 

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Chris_D said:
I would suggest everyone to refer to the official WHO statistics, rather than take any old John Q Nobody's opinionated trends and forecasts into account.

They can be found here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
Click to expand...
If you are referring to me, the source of the data in my graphs is from the data constantly uploaded to the Worldometers website you have linked. My graphs are exactly the same as those that appear on that site. Check the data points in my last graph to confirm that they are the SAME as the figures given at your linked source. All I am doing is putting the same individual plots onto a combined graph.

I'm sorry that you don't like.
 
All of the information we can get is valuable. The better we understand the infection the more likely we are to take steps to stop the spread. I would be interested to know several facts about the infection per nation;
The infection rate per capita ?
The death rate per infection ?

However I think it's very hard to get good information. At this point there is no standard for testing and reporting. Here in America testing has gone undone. We have no count of the infected people walking among us delivering Pizza or ?
I think reporting is flawed too. How in God's name could China have 1 or no new cases just weeks after the disease was rampant? How can Russia have nearly no deaths ? I firmly believe some countries are falsely reporting. And in doing so are they allowing further spread of the virus?
 
Perhaps they let it loose on purpose to wreck the wests economy, knowing they had the antidote.
Couldnt get mi head around the pics on the news when the chinese premier visited the site with little or no protection except from the usual face mask .
Perhaps he had been given the antidote before the visit .,?????
 
AlienZed said:
Perhaps they let it loose on purpose to wreck the wests economy, knowing they had the antidote.
Couldnt get mi head around the pics on the news when the chinese premier visited the site with little or no protection except from the usual face mask .
Perhaps he had been given the antidote before the visit .,?????
Click to expand...

Although I don't like the tin foil hat conspiracy theories, it would make perfect sense if it all came out that this was a ploy to crash the western worlds economy. It would not surprise me at all.

But I don't like to think that way. I just hope it was all innocent, right up until the part where China tried to cover it up for a while.
 
exdos said:
BMWZ4MC said:
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
Click to expand...

Richard, Ive added the recorded number of cases, in addition to, the recorded number of deaths for both Italy and the UK and produced the graph below from the published data. I'm not sure that I'm giving you the visual illustration that you are wanting to see, but by adding the reported number of cases as well as the numbers of deaths gives a most startling difference between the progress of the virus in the two countries.

On 15th February 2020, in the UK there were 9 reported cases of the virus but only 3 reported cases in Italy, therefore it could be suggested that at that time, the UK was ahead of Italy in the progress of the virus. However, by the time that UK reported the first death on 5th March, there were only 116 reported cases here. In comparison, Italy reported its first death on 21st February, and by 5th March, there were 3858 reported cases and 148 deaths.

My graph shows two different scales on the Y-axis: the one on the left is required for the plots of reported number of cases in Italy and UK, and the one on the right applies to the 2 plots for reported deaths in Italy and UK.

There is a fair bit of criticism directed at our government's management of "the crisis" where it is suggested that we should have gone into lockdown at the outset like S Korea and China, but as we've seen, getting some people to comply with government instructions is a futile exercise.

Likewise, we hear a lot of criticism of us not doing enough testing for the virus. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the reported deaths are THE only true measure of success, or otherwise, of the overall strategy to minimise the viral spread. Clearly, our testing method in the UK is keeping the death rate as low as possible.

I think this graph shows that the UK government, entirely guided by medical experts and behavioural psychologists etc., is very successfully managing Pandemic control by pursuing our own strategic measures, where the public are being persuaded, rather than ordered, to follow the necessary implemented measures at the right time for maximum effect. I think this graph demonstrates very clearly that our frontline workers in the NHS are doing an exceptional and successful job and are being very ably assisted by the experts whom are directing the government.


The source of the data used is found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
Click to expand...

Thanks John. It looks like both of the lines for the UK data are following the Italian data, just lagging behind.

The response to the virus has been poorly managed in most developed western cultures, including the UK. This gives some insight:

https://www.facebook.com/654170011/posts/10163516182835012/

As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e87-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

I’ve yet to see a credible exit strategy from the current circumstance proposed by any government. I perceive there to be three possibilities:

1 We isolate ourselves and those who are spared from infection remain immunologically naive. This carries a significant risk of a resurgence of cases when the state of lockdown is released and people start to commingle once more.

2 We isolate until a vaccine is created and herd immunity develops.

3 Sufficient numbers are infected (and either die or recover) for herd immunity to quell further transmission.

We’re following option one at present but I can’t see that leading to clearance from the population, rather a second wave of infection and then further crisis after we come out of lockdown.
 
BMWZ4MC said:
As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e87-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
Click to expand...
Thank you, that was well written by someone just retired from the 'frontline' in healthcare. Insightful, and very human, as he is experiencing first-hand the effects of a loved one (in an 'at risk' condition) contracting it. I hope things work out for him and his family.
Your 'option 1' exit strategy is grim reading :(
 
BMWZ4MC said:
exdos said:
BMWZ4MC said:
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
Click to expand...

Richard, Ive added the recorded number of cases, in addition to, the recorded number of deaths for both Italy and the UK and produced the graph below from the published data. I'm not sure that I'm giving you the visual illustration that you are wanting to see, but by adding the reported number of cases as well as the numbers of deaths gives a most startling difference between the progress of the virus in the two countries.

On 15th February 2020, in the UK there were 9 reported cases of the virus but only 3 reported cases in Italy, therefore it could be suggested that at that time, the UK was ahead of Italy in the progress of the virus. However, by the time that UK reported the first death on 5th March, there were only 116 reported cases here. In comparison, Italy reported its first death on 21st February, and by 5th March, there were 3858 reported cases and 148 deaths.

My graph shows two different scales on the Y-axis: the one on the left is required for the plots of reported number of cases in Italy and UK, and the one on the right applies to the 2 plots for reported deaths in Italy and UK.

There is a fair bit of criticism directed at our government's management of "the crisis" where it is suggested that we should have gone into lockdown at the outset like S Korea and China, but as we've seen, getting some people to comply with government instructions is a futile exercise.

Likewise, we hear a lot of criticism of us not doing enough testing for the virus. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the reported deaths are THE only true measure of success, or otherwise, of the overall strategy to minimise the viral spread. Clearly, our testing method in the UK is keeping the death rate as low as possible.

I think this graph shows that the UK government, entirely guided by medical experts and behavioural psychologists etc., is very successfully managing Pandemic control by pursuing our own strategic measures, where the public are being persuaded, rather than ordered, to follow the necessary implemented measures at the right time for maximum effect. I think this graph demonstrates very clearly that our frontline workers in the NHS are doing an exceptional and successful job and are being very ably assisted by the experts whom are directing the government.


The source of the data used is found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
Click to expand...

Thanks John. It looks like both of the lines for the UK data are following the Italian data, just lagging behind.

The response to the virus has been poorly managed in most developed western cultures, including the UK. This gives some insight:

https://www.facebook.com/654170011/posts/10163516182835012/

As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e87-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

I’ve yet to see a credible exit strategy from the current circumstance proposed by any government. I perceive there to be three possibilities:

1 We isolate ourselves and those who are spared from infection remain immunologically naive. This carries a significant risk of a resurgence of cases when the state of lockdown is released and people start to commingle once more.

2 We isolate until a vaccine is created and herd immunity develops.

3 Sufficient numbers are infected (and either die or recover) for herd immunity to quell further transmission.

We’re following option one at present but I can’t see that leading to clearance from the population, rather a second wave of infection and then further crisis after we come out of lockdown.
Click to expand...

Option 4 possibly :roll: ok its from the DM but certainly makes for interesting reading https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html
 
Yes, but it’s by Peter Hitchens who studied philosophy and politics. His views on Coronavirus are no more valid than yours or mine. Apart from which he has a history of being contrary and no doubt it has earned him a decent living. It’s interesting that unlike most articles in the Mail no comments are allowed. I wonder why!
 
Mr Wilks, I understand that he feels his liberty and human rights are being infringed. They are to some extent, but solely to maintain a far greater basic human right of many others - that is the right to life.
However, I’m not sure what’s he’s proposing as an alternative strategy? In Italy, the lack of early definitive action has resulted in a huge number of deaths and not only amongst those who “would have died this year anyway”. Furthermore, the consolidating pneumonia found in severe COVID-19 will leave a significant number of the survivors as respiratory cripples. 10% of those ventilated in Italy are healthcare professionals, hardly society’s old and infirm. Of those who survive, many will never recover to anything like normal.
Is the better strategy to bury our collective heads in the sand, praise our right to watch the football in the pub with our mates and try to keep the economy afloat whilst the NHS collapses and people dear to each of us become desperately ill and die?
I don’t favour his plan, but it will lead to a successful exit strategy once 80% of the population has been infected.
 
Tinker15 said:
Yes, but it’s by Peter Hitchens who studied philosophy and politics. His views on Coronavirus are no more valid than yours or mine. Apart from which he has a history of being contrary and no doubt it has earned him a decent living. It’s interesting that unlike most articles in the Mail no comments are allowed. I wonder why!
Click to expand...

Indeed but in a democratic world its just another opinion to consider , in reality the government were dammed if they did & dammed if they didn't so ultimately had to follow the lead set by other countries , my own thoughts are when this is over yes it will have been tragic for many families but not on the scale initially told we would see :? is that due to the measures or is that due to how it would have played out anyway :wink:
 
BMWZ4MC said:
Mr Wilks, I understand that he feels his liberty and human rights are being infringed. They are to some extent, but solely to maintain a far greater basic human right of many others - that is the right to life.
However, I’m not sure what’s he’s proposing as an alternative strategy? In Italy, the lack of early definitive action has resulted in a huge number of deaths and not only amongst those who “would have died this year anyway”. Furthermore, the consolidating pneumonia found in severe COVID-19 will leave a significant number of the survivors as respiratory cripples. 10% of those ventilated in Italy are healthcare professionals, hardly society’s old and infirm. Of those who survive, many will never recover to anything like normal.
Is the better strategy to bury our collective heads in the sand, praise our right to watch the football in the pub with our mates and try to keep the economy afloat whilst the NHS collapses and people dear to each of us become desperately ill and die?
I don’t favour his plan, but it will lead to a successful exit strategy once 80% of the population has been infected.
Click to expand...
The number of deaths in Drs & nurses is alarming & must be worrying for anyone like yourself in that area of work :cry: it does seem common sense to isolate therefore reduce further spreading of the virus but unfortunately as we have seen way too many times around the world there is a level of idiocy that means the liberty of free movement has to be removed & enforced by law whether we like it or not .
 
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