Virus worries

[ronk]

I’ve just cobbled a spreadsheet and it looks like we, the Uk, have the low % of the population infected - we have to try and keep it that way.

8k v 66m @ 25th March

[RobbiZ4]

Anyone got any theories on how the Germans seem to be keeping their death toll so low? I wondered if the virus is targeting certain races more than ota a death at The Ringhers? They did apparently get off on a good foot with testing, and they have oodles of hospitals, but even so, it's night and day compared to other countries.

It's rumoured that the German authorities keep the real death toll at The Ring artificially low by removing...

Ineresting. Where did you pick up these "rumors"?
I did not read anything about it apart of fake news chanels like fb.

[exdos]

Ineresting. Where did you catch these "rumours"?
I did not read anything about it apart of fake news chanels like fb.

From other "Ringers" when I've been there.

[Thrustyjust]

Little Sis news. Her husband called me earlier, to say she has relapsed and collapsed earlier. They called an ambulance and they were there very quickly. Considering the pressure they were under, they were amazing in helping her. They dont want her in hospital found she had low BP and was having respiratory issues again. They believe this virus can come back and cause a relapse, which is her current state. She is back into bed now and although she allegedly cannot sleep because of this , he is hoping she is resting now. There is nothing they can give her to help. Now remember she is a healthy middle aged person with no underlying issues. Yes, it affects people in different ways and some just get the sniffles and sore throat, but she is still fighting this thing.
So, please take it easy and keep yourselves to yourselves

[ronk]

Anyone got any theories on how the Germans seem to be keeping their death toll so low? I wondered if the virus is targeting certain races more than others? They did apparently get off on a good foot with testing, and they have oodles of hospitals, but even so, it's night and day compared to other countries.

The Germans infection rate is currently much higher than in the UK

[BMWZ4MC]

I’ve just cobbled a spreadsheet and it looks like we, the Uk, have the low % of the population infected - we have to try and keep it that way.

8k v 66m @ 25th March

I suspect that figure is a consequence of low testing rates and that the UK is a little behind on the upslope of the curve compared with much of the rest of Europe.

[exdos]

The only figure that gives the true picture of the effect of Coronavirus on the different populations in different countries is the recorded death rate.

I have just downloaded the death rates given for the Italy, USA, Germany UK, as below:

Date Italy USA Germany UK
20/02/2020 0
21/02/2020 1
22/02/2020 2
23/02/2020 3
24/02/2020 7
25/02/2020 11
26/02/2020 12
27/02/2020 17
28/02/2020 21 0
29/02/2020 29 1
01/03/2020 41 1
02/03/2020 52 6
03/03/2020 79 9
04/03/2020 107 11 0
05/03/2020 148 12 1
06/03/2020 197 15 2
07/03/2020 233 19 2
08/03/2020 366 22 0 3
09/03/2020 463 26 2 5
10/03/2020 631 30 2 6
11/03/2020 827 38 3 8
12/03/2020 1016 41 6 10
13/03/2020 1266 48 8 11
14/03/2020 1441 57 9 21
15/03/2020 1809 69 13 35
16/03/2020 2158 87 17 55
17/03/2020 2503 110 26 71
18/03/2020 2978 150 28 104
19/03/2020 3405 206 44 144
20/03/2020 4032 255 68 177
21/03/2020 4825 301 84 233
22/03/2020 5476 414 94 281
23/03/2020 6077 555 123 335
24/03/2020 6820 780 159 422
25/03/2020 7503 1027 206 465

If you put that data into an Excel spreadsheet and adjust the alignment of the death rates in each of the 4 countries so that the figures are aligned with each other by moving the columns up, respective to each other so that on 20/02/2020 the death rate for Italy is 0, The USA is at 11, Germany is at the second 2 and the UK is at the first 2, and you then make a line graph from that data, you will see that the death rates in each of the 4 countries is taking exactly the same exponential course as it has done in Italy. There is no Champion's League for coronavirus we're all going to suffer in the same way.

[john-e89]

What it doesn’t tell you though is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway due to natural causes or terminal patients and the virus has just sped up the inevitable. If you could isolate the, on the face of it, healthy people that have died from it it’s very very low. Putting it very bluntly Coronavirus is just clearing out the deadwood from the forest as most are fine after a nasty couple of weeks.

Just a thought.

[exdos]

What it doesn’t tell you though is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway due to natural causes or terminal patients and the virus has just sped up the inevitable. If you could isolate the, on the face of it, healthy people that have died from it it’s very very low.

Just a thought.

Of course when a patient has other underlying health issues, there is obviously going to be a case of "the straw that breaks the camel's back" in play. However, when you consider a relatively small region like Lombardy, where there are an exponentially increasing number of deaths from respiratory problems causing hundreds of deaths per day, it is hard to see that the same number of people would ordinarily die per day, or in the same way from their underlying conditions. Therefore you have to consider that it is most likely that the virus is the cause of death.

You could also say that death is inevitable, so what's the point of living at all?

[Chris_D]

I would suggest that there is possibly a significant degree of data-skewing as JohnE89 suggests and a fair degree of abstraction occurring due to the reporting differences around the globe.

It would be beneficial if the WHO site could offer intelligent trending and forecast data. I suspect this is being generated on an individual basis country to country but not in a standard format and not shared with WHO.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... ee1b9125cd

[exdos]

I would suggest that there is possibly a significant degree of data-skewing as JohnE89 suggests and a fair degree of abstraction occurring due to the reporting differences around the globe.

If you produce a trend-line for the plot of each of the data of Germany, USA and UK, you will see that it follows exactly the same plot that Italy has produced in actuality. Likewise, if you produce a trend-line from Italy's data, the figures are horrendous.

Once the virus takes a hold in a population it will spread in the same way; hence the policy of social distancing to slow down the rate of spread.

[sw4nny]

What it doesn’t tell you though is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway due to natural causes or terminal patients and the virus has just sped up the inevitable. If you could isolate the, on the face of it, healthy people that have died from it it’s very very low. Putting it very bluntly Coronavirus is just clearing out the deadwood from the forest as most are fine after a nasty couple of weeks.

Just a thought.

Yep your right,but it will be a lot more painfull if you cant hold them and comfort them and let them pass as they and you would hope they would go.
I am all for survival of the fittest,but there is a way to go.

[PDJ]

My dad is 84 in April
He was a smoker from around 10 yrs old
At 40 he had a heart attack
Gave up smoking
Has Angina
Worked with asbestos for years
Worked with all the other insulations in the cold storage and construction game
Has a lung function below 20%
Has had prostate cancer

If he gets the virus it will probably kill him

What would you put as the cause of death?

[john-e89]

What it doesn’t tell you though is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway due to natural causes or terminal patients and the virus has just sped up the inevitable. If you could isolate the, on the face of it, healthy people that have died from it it’s very very low.

Just a thought.

Of course when a patient has other underlying health issues, there is obviously going to be a case of "the straw that breaks the camel's back" in play. However, when you consider a relatively small region like Lombardy, where there are an exponentially increasing number of deaths from respiratory problems causing hundreds of deaths per day, it is hard to see that the same number of people would ordinarily die per day, or in the same way from their underlying conditions. Therefore you have to consider that it is most likely that the virus is the cause of death.

You could also say that death is inevitable, so what's the point of living at all?

My point was it’s pretty useless figures being put on this when no one knows if it’s the virus or natural death. You'd need the average figures for deaths per country year on year to make any assumptions wouldn’t you? I’m just asking, not suggesting I’m right.

[john-e89]

My dad is 84 in April
He was a smoker from around 10 yrs old
At 40 he had a heart attack
Gave up smoking
Has Angina
Worked with asbestos for years
Worked with all the other insulations in the cold storage and construction game
Has a lung function below 20%
Has had prostate cancer

If he gets the virus it will probably kill him

What would you put as the cause of death?

And it might well not kill him if he’s survived all those you’ve listed, that’s my point, we don’t know.