Crystal ball time - expected depreciation in next 2 yrs

[IKZ4]

After buying a new BMW 2 years ago and experiencing a fairly steep depreciation curve, I'm considering buying a Z4MC as my main car. I've been running a Z3MR for last 12 months and a new 320D for the last 2 years, and I'm thinking of just having one car, the Z4MC (S54 = ).

Prices for these cars seem to have quite a wide range on them, from £16k to £24k for 2006-2008 models, with 10k to 50k miles.

My question is - if I were to buy a really well looked after car with, say, 30k miles, for £17k - what do you guys think it would be worth in 2 years with 60k miles? I would look after the car and have main dealer servicing, no corners cut.

I know this is just best guess, but I am interested in your thoughts and your logic.

Cheers, Ian

 

[Taz]

no idea but my gut feeling is the coupe will hold its value more than the roadster or the new Z4, i think this because the coupe is much rarer

 

[Hark]

I agree I think Coupe prices will eventually hold more than the roadster. Depends what the economy does really doesn't it. If it stays like this then 2 seater toys are a luxury that few seem to want/need.

 

[Taz]

any old car is worth more now than when it was made, keep it very long term and hey who knows

 

[James_G]

My question is - if I were to buy a really well looked after car with, say, 30k miles, for £17k - what do you guys think it would be worth in 2 years with 60k miles? I would look after the car and have main dealer servicing, no corners cut.

I know this is just best guess, but I am interested in your thoughts and your logic.

Cheers, Ian

My personal opinion is that in 2 years time with 50k miles they will be worth between £12k - £16k. My logic being that, one "their depreciation proof" article in Evo aside, there's nothing to suggest that they aren't subject to all the usual market forces that other cars are. They weren't that revered when new, and rightly or wrongly they don't have the attraction of GT3s, RSs (Porsches not Audis), so they will fall in value.

That shouldn't stop you however, but I wouldn't ever buy a car thinking you'll make your money back. I'm surprised also to hear that you're surprised about the depreciation on your 320D. I say this because a) there's millions of them about which never helps and b) a quick look at any PCP illustration shows the total absence of manufacturer belief in residuals.

 

[sammyz]

The Coop will hold it's value better by virtue of it's rarity but really the real depreciation has gone from most of these cars. I expect them to sell more on condition and mileage from now on. Roadsters are down to 13k in a few cases.

Really, they remain an absolute bargain if you're in the market for a very rapid, reliable and good looking car with loads of kit and a prestige badge.

 

[IKZ4]

I'm surprised also to hear that you're surprised about the depreciation on your 320D. I say this because a) there's millions of them about which never helps and b) a quick look at any PCP illustration shows the total absence of manufacturer belief in residuals.

It's not so much the depreciation per se on the 3 series, it's the fact that after 23 months and 58k miles I am £4.5k negative equity on my PCP! I suppose if I keep it another 6-9 months then depreciation will be slowing and payments are the same, so negative equity will reduce. In theory.

With the Z4MC I agree that they should have already taken the steepest depreciation, I would hope to be able to run one for 2 years / 30k miles and only lose £5-7k. Maybe!?!?

 

[sammyz]

If you pay 17k for one now and keep it pristine, no rips, knocks etc then 12k in 2 years for it with say 50k on the clock? Don't see why not. Good Z3MCs go for 10k or more and are relatively a lot older.

 

[VvrooomM]

I reckon you'll do slightly better than predicted.

I bought at 12 months old,7.8k and paid 31k. Nearly 5 years old now with 24k on the clock and I wouldn't sell for less than 18k with CSL's and other toys, condition with BMW warranty.

Another two years and I'd reckon 14-15k with 30ish on the clock.


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[tomscott]

I have just bought a 56 plate with 46k on it and BMW have put a minimum guaranteed value trade in at £9600 after 2 years of ownership, with an average milage of 8k a year. (I got a 2 year warranty free or i wouldn't have bought the car) But BMW put their minimum values low, privately I think I will get about 11-13K for it depending on how many miles i do. BMW give a guaranteed value to give some confidence, but the salesman said they would probably looking to give around 11.5k for 60k 2006 Z4M in two years. But they do BS, but it doesn't sound too far away tbh.

Z3Ms are a completely different ball game they have a massive cult following! I have seen 70-120ks for between 18-25k good ones are 25k+. But i think i will keep my Z4M longer than 2 years, and it will be looked after to the nines. The previous owner of mine was used as a commute so all motorway milage, the car feels like new to drive better than the car I traded in for it. Also I think the Z4Ms will have a cult and are rare following so will keep a good value.

Put this into perspective I have just traded my 320SI, these are really rare only 400 in the UK and only 2500 ever made. Specifically for the WTCC, it has a hand made engine, and is like a smaller M3 loves to rev. I got this 2 years ago for 14k, pretty basic one but most of them were. I payed 14K it had 30k on it expecting to get 10k for it 2 years later. It now has 46.5k and BMW had a book price of £7400 trade. I was furious, but managed to up the value to £8500 trade which still is pretty awful, but the market is rubbish. Especially as it is only a 2.0 4 cylinder and is rated at 30.1mpg but really I have averaged about 26mpg out of it. So may just be the more thirsty car market or this car is a very specific market, hard to sell compared to a normal 320i of the same year they do 45+ mpg. I bought the car because I like cars know one else has, this is why i love the Z4ms and the z4 coupes because you never see them!

Also you expect to loose money on cars it is a mugs game, but in my opinion its life's little perk, and I would do it every time. The values aren't to bad really the money we are talking about is relatively small, think of the poor guys that spend £65k on a brand new M3 and then 3 year later they get a trade in price for £27k. My dad being that person, imagine his face... ye it was purple! but at the end of the day if you can't afford the depreciation don't buy the car, if you want to make money buy property not cars... they are all designed for product obsolescence unless you buy a car and never enjoy it and it sits, so it is always mint and you have 50 years to spare.. The enjoyment is what you spend the money on! SO DO IT!!

Tom Scott

 

[VvrooomM]

Phew!!


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[lacroupade]

I hope for everyones sake that the numbers are better than expected but I have to say theres some extremely optimistic talking going on here LOL.

As for the coupe, yes its a rare care, but theres a good reason for that isn't there? Heres a clue chaps - not many were sold! I think the issue with both the roadster and the coupe is that the styling is just a bit too Marmite. The Z3 is, like the original TT, a nice piece of design thats just bland enough to appeal to most people, and the size and spec of the M makes it a proper little Q-car, but sadly you can't say that about the Z4 IMHO.

Its all a matter of personal opinion but of course the killer factors will continue to be fuel and insurance costs which are only going one way.

At the end of the day, apart from the fact that it gets dark and we all go to bed, generally speaking, anyone who buys a BMW thinking they are going to get oodles of cash back at the end is probably kidding themselves.

 

[flimper]

they are all designed for product obsolescence unless you buy a car and never enjoy it and it sits, so it is always mint and you have 50 years to spare.. The enjoyment is what you spend the money on! SO DO IT!!

Tom Scott

I don't know what that means

 

[tomscott]

Well product obsolescence means a product is designed to fail, so you have to buy a new one. Or in most cases is superseded by a newer model. What I meant was if you want to make money then you have to take a gamble. In this case if you bought a new Z4M between 06-08 and felt it was a future classic you could just keep it, store it, never use it and in 50 years it will be a mint classic worth xx or on the other hand it might not... Only worth what people are willing to pay. A good example of a car this will happen to is a Veyron, Guaranteed to appreciate not depreciate. Whereas if you actually use the vehicle and enjoy it put loads of miles on it, it will eventually be worth nothing and cost more to fix than the car is worth, although it may have personal value. But how I see it is that if you buy the car you want, get the most use from it then you have paid for the pleasure. So is worth it. Keep it a few years and then move onto your next one. I plan to have as many as physically possible! .

Its a mugs game but a game I will always want to play.

Tom scott