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Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:22 pm
by Tinker15
I’m 78 and in good health. I don’t give a b#gger how they collect the statistics but I would prefer not to become one of them! 🙂

Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:52 pm
by ronk
Over 70 the immune system starts to fail.

Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:13 pm
by Tinker15
[quote=ronk post_id=&lt;a href="tel:<a href="tel:1728729">1728729</a>"&gt;1728729&lt;/a&gt; time=&lt;a href="tel:<a href="tel:1585223552">1585223552</a>"&gt;1585223552&lt;/a&gt; user_id=2418]
Over 70 the immune system starts to fail.
[/quote]

Go on cheer me up! 😉 If you don’t catch it you won’t need to worry.

Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:54 pm
by PDJ
You can use my dad as an example no problem

My Grandma died when she wax 99 years old and had not seen a doctor within 3 days so the law required a post mortom until my mum stepped in as a nurse and pointed out gran was in a nursing home and a doctor had been to the address so got the death cert signed off without wasting time and money cutting up gran to say she died of old age and bowl cancer she had had for 30 years

Some tomes that not so common sense needs to be applied

The stats are not a true reflection but it is what we are being told

Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:00 pm
by exdos
To properly illustrate my earlier postings, here are a couple of graphs of the published numbers of daily death totals from Coronavirus in Italy, USA, Germany and UK up until 25th March 2020, (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ) which have been set so that the plots commence at the starting point of the first recorded death in each country rather than the date on which deaths commenced.

It would appear that viral spread in Europe and USA follows the same progress, despite different protocols in place in each country. The actuality would appear to follow the models which our experts have used in forecasting spread and for the phases to be followed in seeking to limit the mortality rate. The spread of the virus in Italy is about a fortnight in advance of the rest of us.


Deaths Coronavirus 2.jpg
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Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 pm
by BMWZ4MC
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
FWIW, I’m not surprised to see the graphs for each country match so closely. A fair proportion of Australians seem to be deluding themselves that their country is somehow special and that they will escape the worst of covid. I’ve heard idiotic comments like “we have better air here” and “we’re all much fitter in Aus”. Few people have recognised that we are in the latent phase of the curve that precedes the take off...

Virus worries

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:30 pm
by exdos
Richard, Good to hear from you and hope you are well in Oz and keep well.

I'll do that for you tomorrow. Since compiling the 2 graphs above, I've also added Spain to my graphs and the mortality there is even greater than Italy and the other countries in those graphs. Horrific.

I've just seen on the news that Oxford University has devised a relatively simple but effective ventilator that can be made from readily available parts within the NHS: something which I've been advocating for a while to satisfy an urgent need in this crisis. If governments issued a set of simple plans to unify a design for such an emergency piece of kit, I'm sure that there are plenty folks capable of assembling the kit whilst they're in lockdown at home and without work. If it's a case of life and death, stick a Brook Airway in my throat with some bellows on the other end, rather than certain death whilst waiting for some fancy, certified, computer-controlled ventilator to be delivered in June.

Keep yourself safe. :thumbsup:

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:02 am
by enzed4
BMWZ4MC wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 pm
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
FWIW, I’m not surprised to see the graphs for each country match so closely. A fair proportion of Australians seem to be deluding themselves that their country is somehow special and that they will escape the worst of covid. I’ve heard idiotic comments like “we have better air here” and “we’re all much fitter in Aus”. Few people have recognised that we are in the latent phase of the curve that precedes the take off...
This is exactly what I'm seeing in some of the US youtube videos I subscribe to. I'm sitting in lockdown for the next 4 weeks (along with the entire country) while watching them travel to shops wearing gloves and no masks and joking about social distance, while their President says they should be right by Easter and the churches will be packed for it. I feel very afraid for the people of America. For some reason many states seem to think New York is an anomaly and it won't affect them the same way. Federal and State authorities don't seem to be able to agree any any course of action. It's just bizarre. :(

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:50 am
by scootr
The main take away I got from videos of Italian survivors was their common belief that this can't happen to us it's just northern Italy or next town or next neighbor. And I think the Americans are in the same denial. There are a lot of colonies that just are not comprehending the severity of this disease. There are authorities that are not shutting down public gathering. There are people complaining about the inconvenience of distancing.
New York City is an epicenter because it has a high density population and they were slow to react. Doctors and nurses are dying along with the patients. It's very bad in NY and so people were leaving. And they let them go :?

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:22 am
by exdos
BMWZ4MC wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 pm
John, it would be interesting if you could overlie the data for the number of reported cases, either as an absolute number or as a percentage of the population. I wonder if the exponential increase in death rate occurs when a country reaches a critical mass of cases.
Richard, Ive added the recorded number of cases, in addition to, the recorded number of deaths for both Italy and the UK and produced the graph below from the published data. I'm not sure that I'm giving you the visual illustration that you are wanting to see, but by adding the reported number of cases as well as the numbers of deaths gives a most startling difference between the progress of the virus in the two countries.

On 15th February 2020, in the UK there were 9 reported cases of the virus but only 3 reported cases in Italy, therefore it could be suggested that at that time, the UK was ahead of Italy in the progress of the virus. However, by the time that UK reported the first death on 5th March, there were only 116 reported cases here. In comparison, Italy reported its first death on 21st February, and by 5th March, there were 3858 reported cases and 148 deaths.

My graph shows two different scales on the Y-axis: the one on the left is required for the plots of reported number of cases in Italy and UK, and the one on the right applies to the 2 plots for reported deaths in Italy and UK.

There is a fair bit of criticism directed at our government's management of "the crisis" where it is suggested that we should have gone into lockdown at the outset like S Korea and China, but as we've seen, getting some people to comply with government instructions is a futile exercise.

Likewise, we hear a lot of criticism of us not doing enough testing for the virus. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the reported deaths are THE only true measure of success, or otherwise, of the overall strategy to minimise the viral spread. Clearly, our testing method in the UK is keeping the death rate as low as possible.

I think this graph shows that the UK government, entirely guided by medical experts and behavioural psychologists etc., is very successfully managing Pandemic control by pursuing our own strategic measures, where the public are being persuaded, rather than ordered, to follow the necessary implemented measures at the right time for maximum effect. I think this graph demonstrates very clearly that our frontline workers in the NHS are doing an exceptional and successful job and are being very ably assisted by the experts whom are directing the government.


The source of the data used is found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:22 pm
by ben g
Now Boris has it :o looks like we're all buggered now!

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:39 pm
by Chris_D
I would suggest everyone to refer to the official WHO statistics, rather than take any old John Q Nobody's opinionated trends and forecasts into account.

They can be found here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/
Firefox_Screenshot_2020-03-27T11-38-15.510Z.png
Firefox_Screenshot_2020-03-27T11-38-15.510Z.png (32.34 KiB) Viewed 106 times

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:44 pm
by exdos
Chris_D wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:39 pm
I would suggest everyone to refer to the official WHO statistics, rather than take any old John Q Nobody's opinionated trends and forecasts into account.

They can be found here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/
If you are referring to me, the source of the data in my graphs is from the data constantly uploaded to the Worldometers website you have linked. My graphs are exactly the same as those that appear on that site. Check the data points in my last graph to confirm that they are the SAME as the figures given at your linked source. All I am doing is putting the same individual plots onto a combined graph.

I'm sorry that you don't like.

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:02 pm
by MefiEcosse
ben g wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:22 pm
Now Boris has it :o looks like we're all buggered now!


Get him plugged into a Dyson and he'll be fine!! :D

Virus worries

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:22 pm
by scootr
All of the information we can get is valuable. The better we understand the infection the more likely we are to take steps to stop the spread. I would be interested to know several facts about the infection per nation;
The infection rate per capita ?
The death rate per infection ?

However I think it's very hard to get good information. At this point there is no standard for testing and reporting. Here in America testing has gone undone. We have no count of the infected people walking among us delivering Pizza or ?
I think reporting is flawed too. How in God's name could China have 1 or no new cases just weeks after the disease was rampant? How can Russia have nearly no deaths ? I firmly believe some countries are falsely reporting. And in doing so are they allowing further spread of the virus?