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Virus worries

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exdos
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Virus worries

Post by exdos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:01 am

BMWZ4MC wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:57 am
Thanks John. It looks like both of the lines for the UK data are following the Italian data, just lagging behind.

As does this, written by a remarkably eloquent neurosurgeon from my alma mater:

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e8 ... 503995cd6f

I’ve yet to see a credible exit strategy from the current circumstance proposed by any government. I perceive there to be three possibilities:

We’re following option one at present but I can’t see that leading to clearance from the population, rather a second wave of infection and then further crisis after we come out of lockdown.
Richard, the writing of Henry Marsh is an excellent assessment and understanding of the dilemma faced by the medical profession, health care workers and support required from the population under the direction of government and its advisers.
mr wilks wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:56 am
Option 4 possibly :roll: ok its from the DM but certainly makes for interesting reading https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ppled.html
I think that Peter Hitchens is always worth listening to and it seems that the argument that he proposes is that we should essentially let nature take its course, but I disagree that would be the best way and would appear to many as morally irresponsible.

The economic impact of lockdown will be massive on us all and will change all of our lives in many ways that we don't yet realise. Is it best that we should let nature's Lottery take its course and scythe us down at random or should we attempt to save as many of ourselves as possible to face the uncertain future together? Personally, I think the policy being pursued in the UK is actually a combination of 1 and 3 in Richard's posting, where we've permitted the virus to spread around the UK in, as yet, relatively low numbers, so that the the entire country is infected and followed by the voluntary lockdown measures to slow down the spread which eventually creates herd immunity, whilst at the same time allowing the NHS to cope with the most serious cases of infection. This buys us time whilst we await the necessary vaccine to become available for us all.

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Virus worries

Post by exdos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:11 am

mr wilks wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:21 am my own thoughts are when this is over yes it will have been tragic for many families but not on the scale initially told we would see :? is that due to the measures or is that due to how it would have played out anyway :wink:
If this thing were to be left to run its course without any attempts to take preventive action to protect ourselves, as a society, it would take out many millions of people, and not just the over 70s. What we are presently seeing in a small region of Italy would happen everywhere, even in your small part of the World. I think you might change your tune then, if you were still around...

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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:24 am

Unfortunately John, I suspect that the UK government is attempting to follow strategy one, but three will come to pass as it has in Northern Italy. Australia won’t fare differently for the same reasons - early inaction and too soft a response once things started to go downhill. Large swathes of the population will be infected and whilst most will experience only a moderate illness, many will be hospitalised and a significant proportion of those will die.
Draconian measures strictly enforced will slow that process, make it more manageable and lower the mortality rate, but won’t greatly reduce the final number of people infected.
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Post by mr wilks » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:28 am

@exdos
Is it not likely by the time there is a vaccine available ( possibly 12 -18 months away) we won't need it ?
Or is this form of SARS considered more a threat to us longterm whereas previous one hasn't proved that way ?
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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:49 am

SARS was more lethal but less easily transmitted. For both reasons it was more easily contained and a vaccine proved unnecessary.
This Corona virus is less lethal and highly contagious in the pre-symptomatic phase of the illness (unlike SARS). As such it can spread like wildfire without becoming self limiting until the majority of the population have become immune. That will prolong the course of COVID-19 for a great many months to come (unless we opt out of self isolation and other protective measures, accepting that it will ravage society but be over with before the year is out).
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Post by exdos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:04 pm

mr wilks wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:28 am @exdos
Is it not likely by the time there is a vaccine available ( possibly 12 -18 months away) we won't need it ?
Or is this form of SARS considered more a threat to us longterm whereas previous one hasn't proved that way ?
That is possible, or even likely, dependant upon the rate of spread.

It seems to me that the government's strategy is to prevent the rapid spread of the infection so that the hospitals can try to cope with the huge numbers of people requiring hospitalisation and ventilators, and the safe disposal of large numbers of deceased at the same time. This is essentially an emergency logistics problem to be solved which places the frontline services at great risk. The creation of huge emergency hospitals in London, Cardiff, Manchester and Birmingham shows the scale of the problem with relatively limited manpower and resources whilst the majority of us are required to watch idly behind our closed doors.

The end result maybe the same whichever path we take, but at least attempting to slow the rate of progress gives those whom have to deal with the practicality of handling patients and the deceased a chance to spread the load.

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Post by ronk » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:10 pm

Here’s another academic opinion:-

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... 9-9104220/
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Post by exdos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:21 pm

And something to think about: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52074862

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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:34 pm

ronk wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:10 pm Here’s another academic opinion:-

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... 9-9104220/
Very interesting :thumbsup:
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Post by AlienZed » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:39 pm

ronk wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:10 pm Here’s another academic opinion:-

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... 9-9104220/
Interesting that Ron, we went to Oz november 1st week in dec i came down with some virus ,fluey type symptoms, felt mi breathing getting worse couldnt get outa bed,,laid out for a week .mi back and chest felt really hot ,off mi food for weeks too,got sum intibiotics of the local docs which sorted me out after another week, so my son in Oz reckons ive had it back then , certainly makes me wonder if it was around then ,but as i have a history of chest probs ,pneumonia etc i aint taking chances and we are isolating ourselves ,
Stay safe .
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Post by john-e89 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:42 pm

ronk wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:10 pm Here’s another academic opinion:-

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... 9-9104220/
Good post that Ronk. :thumbsup:
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Post by BMWZ4MC » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:48 pm

exdos wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:21 pm And something to think about: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52074862
It might be ironic that arms dealers are trading in devices that save lives, were it not for the extortionate prices they’re demanding. Sadly there are always profiteers in war.
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Post by Nictrix » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:03 pm

The problem I see with not isolating and letting nature run its course is that although you might be ok and survive, what about your wife, husband, son, daughter, mother, father etc.
Is it really ok to take the chance that everybody you know will be alive at the end?
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Post by Beatman » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:05 pm

ronk wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:10 pm Here’s another academic opinion:-

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... 9-9104220/
Very interesting read, thx Ronk :thumbsup:
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Post by pvr » Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:21 pm

If I read it right, it does mean that a second wave of health care people who have had the virus can then approach the sick without specific protective gear then as they are now immune for it?

The same with law and order, the police who have had it, can get in proximity of the people they need to deal with?
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