Virus worries

[john-e89]

What it doesn’t tell you though is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway due to natural causes or terminal patients and the virus has just sped up the inevitable. If you could isolate the, on the face of it, healthy people that have died from it it’s very very low. Putting it very bluntly Coronavirus is just clearing out the deadwood from the forest as most are fine after a nasty couple of weeks.

Just a thought.

Yep your right,but it will be a lot more painfull if you cant hold them and comfort them and let them pass as they and you would hope they would go.
I am all for survival of the fittest,but there is a way to go.

Oh I agree 100%, I put it very bluntly, probably too bluntly.

[mr wilks]

Any thoughts on Sweden doing their own thing
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-no-lo ... a-52904188

[sars]

Anyone got any theories on how the Germans seem to be keeping their death toll so low? I wondered if the virus is targeting certain races more than others? They did apparently get off on a good foot with testing, and they have oodles of hospitals, but even so, it's night and day compared to other countries.

The Germans infection rate is currently much higher than in the UK

You have to remember that we are only testing once in hospital so our indicated daily rates are meaningless, Germany have a younger population than the UK which has much younger population than Italy. Thus you can not compare our daily infected data with countries that have better testing, death rate is more accurate.

America is the one to watch, in one way they have small populations in isolated towns but large numbers of people in lots of cities,

[exdos]

My point was it’s pretty useless figures being put on this when no one knows if it’s the virus or natural death. You'd need the average figures for deaths per country year on year to make any assumptions wouldn’t you? I’m just asking, not suggesting I’m right.

I see your point and I'm simply challenging it.

Sure, we all have to die of something but to suggest that the underlying conditions are THE real cause of death, not Coronavirus, when an already compromised person proves positive for the virus and succumbs, should not be recorded as a death from Coronavirus is just wrong.

If all those people in hospitals in Italy are just suffering and dying en masse from their many different underlying conditions and not from Coronavirus, why are so many otherwise healthy doctors and other healthcare workers, dying from the Coronavirus when they come in contact with those patients with their underlying conditions? It's the coronavirus that those patients carry with which they infect others because, they, themselves are severely infected.

[Chris_D]

I would suggest that there is possibly a significant degree of data-skewing as JohnE89 suggests and a fair degree of abstraction occurring due to the reporting differences around the globe.

If you produce a trend-line for the plot of each of the data of Germany, USA and UK, you will see that it follows exactly the same plot that Italy has produced in actuality. Likewise, if you produce a trend-line from Italy's data, the figures are horrendous.

Once the virus takes a hold in a population it will spread in the same way; hence the policy of social distancing to slow down the rate of spread.

In principle I agree, but you're using skewed and abstracted and imprecise raw data to begin with.
I don't think an actual accurate forecast would be far off however.

[Chris_D]

Any thoughts on Sweden doing their own thing
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-no-lo ... a-52904188

Put it this way, I wouldn't want to be living there right now.

[exdos]

My dad is 84 in April
He was a smoker from around 10 yrs old
At 40 he had a heart attack
Gave up smoking
Has Angina
Worked with asbestos for years
Worked with all the other insulations in the cold storage and construction game
Has a lung function below 20%
Has had prostate cancer

If he gets the virus it will probably kill him

What would you put as the cause of death?

And it might well not kill him if he’s survived all those you’ve listed, that’s my point, we don’t know.

O.K. Talking hypothetically here; if PDJ's Dad gets infected with Coronavirus and is taken to hospital in an ambulance, with 2 healthy paramedics with no known medical conditions, which crashes on the journey and kills all the occupants in the ambulance, is the cause of death for PDJ's dad a RTA, coronavirus or from complications of any of the conditions listed? In comparison, I would assume you would agree that the 2 paramedics would have their deaths attributed to the RTA only?

[john-e89]

My point was it’s pretty useless figures being put on this when no one knows if it’s the virus or natural death. You'd need the average figures for deaths per country year on year to make any assumptions wouldn’t you? I’m just asking, not suggesting I’m right.

I see your point and I'm simply challenging it.

Sure, we all have to die of something but to suggest that the underlying conditions are THE real cause of death, not Coronavirus, when an already compromised person proves positive for the virus and succumbs, should not be recorded as a death from Coronavirus is just wrong.

If all those people in hospitals in Italy are just suffering and dying en masse from their many different underlying conditions and not from Coronavirus, why are so many otherwise healthy doctors and other healthcare workers, dying from the Coronavirus when they come in contact with those patients with their underlying conditions? It's the coronavirus that those patients carry with which they infect others because, they, themselves are severely infected.

I’m not putting it very well admittedly. What I’m getting at is, and obviously you’re right about the healthy dying, is how many is this thing actually killing who are healthy, clearly lots, but given the overall deaths quoted my thought was that the number of healthy people dying is quite low hence my thought about it being difficult to put figures on the overall picture.

[exdos]

In principle I agree, but you're using skewed and abstracted and imprecise raw data to begin with.
I don't think an actual accurate forecast would be far off however.

In what way is recorded death imprecise raw data if all those recorded as being in hospital at the time of death suffering from appropriate symptoms and proving positive for the virus?

[john-e89]

My dad is 84 in April
He was a smoker from around 10 yrs old
At 40 he had a heart attack
Gave up smoking
Has Angina
Worked with asbestos for years
Worked with all the other insulations in the cold storage and construction game
Has a lung function below 20%
Has had prostate cancer

If he gets the virus it will probably kill him

What would you put as the cause of death?

And it might well not kill him if he’s survived all those you’ve listed, that’s my point, we don’t know.

O.K. Talking hypothetically here; if PDJ's Dad gets infected with Coronavirus and is taken to hospital in an ambulance, with 2 healthy paramedics with no known medical conditions, which crashes on the journey and kills all the occupants in the ambulance, is the cause of death for PDJ's dad a RTA, coronavirus or from complications of any of the conditions listed? In comparison, I would assume you would agree that the 2 paramedics would have their deaths attributed to the RTA only?

I would think only an autopsy could provide the answer on PDJ’s dad. The paramedics also but the RTA inducing huge trauma the likely cause but until an autopsy then guessing is......guessing.


Not sure we should be using PDJ’s dad here as an example tbh. If we continue can we use a hypothetical person.

[exdos]

I’m not putting it very well admittedly. What I’m getting at is, and obviously you’re right about the healthy dying, is how many is this thing actually killing who are healthy, clearly lots, but given the overall deaths quoted my thought was that the number of healthy people dying is quite low hence my thought about it being difficult to put figures on the overall picture.

The thing here is that every single person who catches the virus is a vehicle of spread and those with underlying conditions with compromised immunity are fertile "breeding grounds" for the virus (Viruses don't actually breed).

Obviously, in ordinary circumstances, the health compromised would most likely have their deaths recorded as being attributed to one of their underlying conditions, but if their deaths are attributed to coronavirus, then the National Statistics will later show that there has been a fall in, say, heart failure etc.. Therefore, it will be important when reviewing the statistics in future in realising that the health of a nation has not been improved by successfully tackling heart disease, instead the figures for heart disease are skewed by the effect of coronavirus and NOT the opposite way around.

[exdos]

I would think only an autopsy could provide the answer on PDJ’s dad. The paramedics also but the RTA inducing huge trauma the likely cause but until an autopsy then guessing is......guessing.


Not sure we should be using PDJ’s dad here as an example tbh. If we continue can we use a hypothetical person.

I very much doubt that the Italians are doing many autopsies at the moment whilst inundated.

Yes, sincere apologies to PDJ and his family and I hope that all stay well.

[john-e89]

I’m not putting it very well admittedly. What I’m getting at is, and obviously you’re right about the healthy dying, is how many is this thing actually killing who are healthy, clearly lots, but given the overall deaths quoted my thought was that the number of healthy people dying is quite low hence my thought about it being difficult to put figures on the overall picture.

The thing here is that every single person who catches the virus is a vehicle of spread and those with underlying conditions with compromised immunity are fertile "breeding grounds" for the virus (Viruses don't actually breed).

Obviously, in ordinary circumstances, the health compromised would most likely have their deaths recorded as being attributed to one of their underlying conditions, but if their deaths are attributed to coronavirus, then the National Statistics will later show that there has been a fall in, say, heart failure etc.. Therefore, it will be important when reviewing the statistics in future in realising that the health of a nation has not been improved by successfully tackling heart disease, instead the figures for heart disease are skewed by the effect of coronavirus and NOT the opposite way around.

Right, so we won’t know until a much later date as you say, which was what I was getting at in a roundabout way, therefore making figures now a bit of a guesstimate at best, my opening point yes?

[exdos]

Right, so we won’t know until a much later date as you say, which was what I was getting at in a roundabout way, therefore making figures now a bit of a guesstimate at best, my opening point yes?

No. We know the death rate figures NOW.

As I've stated above:
"In what way is recorded death imprecise raw data if all those recorded as being in hospital at the time of death suffering from appropriate symptoms and proving positive for the virus?"

[john-e89]

Right, so we won’t know until a much later date as you say, which was what I was getting at in a roundabout way, therefore making figures now a bit of a guesstimate at best, my opening point yes?

No. We know the death rate figures NOW.

As I've stated above:
"In what way is recorded death imprecise raw data if all those recorded as being in hospital at the time of death suffering from appropriate symptoms and proving positive for the virus?"

Ok yes, I didn’t read that, emailing here and there so jumping in here as and when. Many thanks John.