Busterboo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:39 pm
Statistics? Yes. Crude ones, anyway. The rate of parts failure can be implied from BMW Insured Warranty coverage & prices.
So the rate of failure for a HPFP on a 2016 BMW Z4 35is is... ? Exactly, you don't know.
You would have to assume that the overall cost of works done under warranty is less than the overall warranty fees paid. Hence,
actuarially, the one who is "lucky" is the one who has more paid out than they paid in. Unless, of course, BMW or the provider is subsidising the warranty and taking a loss, in which case you can't imply a rate of parts failure from warranty prices.
That doesn't mean that the warranty isn't worth taking out, it depends on your own circumstances. It does, however, mean that the warranty isn't
always worth taking out -
it depends on your own personal set of circumstances. I.e. whether a flat annual fee is better for you than the likelihood of a larger cost in one year, even if overall accumulative cost could be more in the long run. That's just how insurance/warranties work.
Busterboo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:39 pm
Luck? Terminologically, you're probably right. But 'you know what I mean'.
If you're going to use words like "actuarially", it's slightly ridiculous to fall back on "you know what I mean".
Busterboo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:39 pm
Shout? I haven't. Only shared.
No accusation of you shouting. It's a comment on the overall picture presented on the Internet - when the N54 is mentioned there are always responses referring to the perceived unreliability and high maintenance costs of the engine. Those people are collectively the ones who "shout loudest", and, let's be honest, your response to my post was metaphorically trying to shout me down.
Busterboo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:39 pm
Tribal? I've spoken only from my own experience
Except you haven't only spoken from your own experience, you've referred to statistics that don't seem to exist and then you've tried to discredit my experience by telling me I'm just "lucky", therefore implying that my experience does not count.